5 (Faulty) Assumptions That Will Further Shrink Your Enrollment in the Year Ahead

March 7, 2023

Is the world changing?


Nope. It has changed. 


Leading a campus (or a district of campuses) in the new world of work has been more than complex. 


What enhances the struggle is when your assumptions about the future are false. 


Recently, Ms. Becky (my wife) and I embarked on a winter hike that we planned would take a few hours in our home state of Minnesota. The snow and ice on the trail were a bit more than planned, causing us to cancel our dinner plans with friends that evening. 

puzzle pieces

The hike was beautiful, but our delay was discouraging. 


Isn’t it better to know it will be difficult and find it a bit easier than to think things will be easy and find them super challenging?


What’s true in life is especially true in leadership.


Over the past 18 months, I have encountered more than a few delusional leaders working from conventional strategies for bolstering campus enrollment that, in all likelihood, won’t pan out.


Your performance will grow if you get your assumptions dialed in and work your plan with focus. 


Here are the five (faulty) assumptions that will further shrink your enrollment in the year ahead.


1. What worked before is going to work again.


A crisis is both a revealer and an accelerator.


The crisis of the last few years has accomplished two things across every campus. It’s revealed what’s working and what isn’t. And it’s sped up the consequences of both.


While a few systems have seen rapid growth during the crisis, most are recovering. Just last week, I found myself in the middle of an executive leadership conversation hinging on the question, “should we host a town hall meeting to say that we are up in enrollment (over last year) when in reality, we are still 18% down since 2020.”


On the one hand, it is
right to celebrate gains to foster hope, but on the other hand, campus leaders must be clear in “right-sizing” their budgets without confusing their people. 


How can you be up in enrollment and cutting programs right?


Because crisis both reveals and accelerates, perhaps you’re seeing today what your campus would have looked like in 2030 without a healthy course correction. 


As sobering as that might be, perhaps it’s a gift.


If the old
 approach allowed for Lucky Growth (we built it, and they will come), the accelerated decline could be a gift to help you see that a new Leading Growth approach is needed.


If the old approach isn’t replicating growth, trying harder in that space won’t bring different results, no matter how hard you grind.


And if the old model wasn’t working before, it will probably not work again, no matter how sincere you are, how loudly you command your people, or how desperate you feel.


The time has finally come for campus leaders to double down on the mission and experiment with the methods.


2. The building will be the center of education.


At the heart of every declining system is the over-reliance on buildings as the focal point of all learning engagement.


What if the future of transforming lives has left the building? 


By this, I don’t mean that campus sites across the country should abandon gathering. The future of education is (and will always be) in
community. 


Decentralized, distributed, and small group is the future of learning in the new world. 


Somehow, education fell into the assumption that for quality engagement to occur, it was fixed within the construct of a campus (with a mascot), four walls to a classroom, and two covers to a book. 


And that is observed by cramming humans into auditoriums, rows, and other settings where dialogue isn’t really encouraged.


You may still be shocked and frustrated by the surprisingly low return-to-campus attendance trends this semester.


What if the people you’re looking for haven’t left? What if they’ve just left your building? 

 

Plug your nose because this truth stinks, for sure. Many of your learners are gone for good. 


No questions. No arguing. 


Those missing may not be leaving the educational pipeline altogether. They may not even be leaving your system.


They’re just not returning to YOUR building, and perhaps they won’t even after the pandemic is a distant memory.


I’m not saying this is good (I don’t like it either). I am saying it’s real. 


Leaders who cooperate with reality do far better than those who fall victim (and complain about it).


Here’s what’s critical. Your mission isn’t dead. 

  • Your commitment to academic excellence and student success.
  • Your dedication to equity and inclusion.
  • Your partnership with families and the community.
  • Your emphasis on professional development and ongoing learning.
  • Your commitment to accountability and transparency.


But your methods might be on life support.


What if the BUILDING as a method is getting in the way of thriving in delivering your mission?



At the end of 2023, what would it feel like to be ahead again?


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”Wow! I didn’t realize I desperately needed these tools in my life.”


“This experience so profoundly impacted us. We are now beginning to edit out the unhealthy team behaviors interfering with our performance."


“The timing of this message could not have been better for the health of our team.”


Without a new focus and approach, it's easy to continue to:

➜ Sacrifice self and family on the altar of work.

➜ Overcommit and underdeliver.

➜ Be busy but no longer brilliant.

➜ Juggle more priorities than what we can complete.


Worst of all, other people — other tasks, jobs, and projects — will continue to hijack your life.


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This interactive session will inspire, challenge, and equip your team to accelerate healthy team culture and overall team performance. 


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3. You don’t need to take virtual learning that seriously.


The rallying cry – “EVERYONE GET BACK TO THE BUILDING” that so many college presidents and district superintendents have shouted over the last year still surprises me.


Add to that the consistent and critical dismissal of virtual learning as a quality option for mission delivery. I’m not talking about your website, live stream, and social media upgrades. I’m referring to the notion that your online presence is likely underfunded and relegated to the middle of someone’s job description.


Too many campus sites have a Web1 presence as Web2 peaks, and Web3 emerges, yet still wonder why they can’t grow enrollment.


For a primer on Web3 and the “metaverse” in education, I highly recommend reading
What Does Web3 in Education mean for the future of teaching and learning. 


Most campuses spend 90-98% of their learning budget on in-person education in an era where fewer people attend in-person school than ever.


Please hear me out. Each campus MUST do in-person learning exceptionally well.


But you are losing significant traction when your system spends a tiny fraction of its time and resources serving and prospecting your current and future learners in the virtual economy. 


The good news is that sometimes online engagement will lead to in-person. 


Sometimes it doesn’t.


The point is that everyone you want to reach IS online. If you can’t engage people in cyberspace, you miss them and all the opportunity that comes with it.


4. The future will be linear.


There was a season in leadership from the 1980s through the mid-2010s where leadership was more straightforward because progress (in both technology and society) was linear.


There were a few recessions and setbacks along the way, but it was usually only a matter of time until things started moving forward again in a predictable fashion. While that wasn’t true in every organization, it was culturally true across education.


The mid-2010s ushered in the first waves of instability (division, deeper partisanship, rage, and the severe questioning of institutions), all serving as a massive wave disrupting the patterns we knew and had come to trust. 


The pandemic and ensuing global crisis accelerated the destabilization even further.


Leaders of geopolitical thought predict that the future will be unpredictable (how’s that for a prediction?). 


The future will be less linear, unstable, and complex than anything ANYONE has led before. 


This is unchartered territory. Thinking the future will be linear and predictable only sets you and your team up for more heartbreak and anger.


You know the stoic line, “the secret to happiness is low expectations?”


Having lower expectations for predictability and embracing the probability of instability will better prepare you to lead your team and system successfully. 


Agile leaders and teams thrive in periods of rapid change, and if you’re ready for it, you can be one of those leaders and one of those systems.


For more on this, you may want to take another look at my post,
4 Big Signs to Guarantee your Performance Won’t Turn Around.


5.
Running hard like your hair is on fire is the only way to fix this.


Many leaders have been running so hard for so long, grinding under the false hope that the next quarter/new semester/new year will bring new hope.


Has it?


This leaves you with the question, “how long can I run at this pace?”


For most leaders, the meter expired months or years ago. And that leaves you exhausted, looking ahead at an impossible future.


Exhaustion is the gateway to terrible decision-making, moral failure, burnout, ineffectiveness, and chronic underperformance. 


Why? 


Running at an unsustainable pace will leave you too tired to think about innovation and without the energy to dare, risk, or execute.


This has to be the season for you to focus—to find a sustainable pace.


It’s no shock that one of the first casualties of working too hard is a loss of creativity. As 
Adam Grant has pointed out, great ideas take time and margin to develop and often involve experimentation and failure.


And most importantly, creativity is linked to slowing down and creating space for the creative process to ferment and grow (Adam’s 
2016 TED talk would be good therapy right now, by the way).


If finding a sustainable pace has been elusive for you (as it has for most leaders), I’d love to help you find one.
Book a Free Virtual Coffee Here for a pep talk and a free consultation for effectively managing your meeting triage.


Running hard indefinitely isn’t the way to fix a problem—it’s actually the way to break you.




Identify and Break Through Your Growth Barriers.


Enroll Your Team in the Lead Team Institute 


  • What used to work isn’t working anymore. What do I do next? 
  • Why don’t we see results, even when we’re putting in the effort? 
  • What’s the right decision for the future when everything is so uncertain? 


The Institute
is for you if you are a Campus President, District Administrator, or a Public Sector Executive Director looking to Optimize Higher Team Performance. 


Escape the struggle today by joining a vibrant cohort where leaders share strategies and ideas to help each other Reclaim Momentum. 

  • Live Team Kickoff – Fall of 2023
  • 10 Virtual Workshops
  • Live Team Capstone – Spring of 2024
  • Virtual Team Training Resources


Ready to change the trajectory of your campus?


Set up a
Virtual Coffee HERE to learn more. 



More Blog Articles

By HPG Info March 24, 2026
Conviction builds loyalty. Consensus builds mediocrity. I own more Milwaukee tools than any non-contractor has any business owning. A drill. A hammer drill. A circular saw. A packout toolbox system I am genuinely embarrassed to price out—because the boxes that hold the tools have become as satisfying as the tools themselves. I am an organizational researcher and executive team coach who studies leadership teams for a living. I have, without anyone asking me to, become an unpaid marketing department for a power tool brand. I've been trying to understand: Why? Because I didn't drift into Milwaukee. I converted. I had DeWalt tools that worked fine. I replaced them—deliberately, at real cost—because I watched someone on YouTube be genuinely passionate about what Milwaukee was building, and I needed to know what that felt like. Three years later, I'm recommending Milwaukee to people who didn't ask about tools. That's not brand loyalty. That's conviction. And it raises a question I haven't been able to stop thinking about: When is the last time someone became an unpaid evangelist for what you're building? When is the last time a family, a faculty member, a board member recommended your leadership—not because you nudged them, not because a survey asked them—but because they couldn't help it? Our research across 987 leadership teams answers this. The highest-performing institutions aren't the most collegial. They're the most convicted. They know precisely what they're building—and precisely what they refuse to build—and that clarity is more infectious than any strategic plan ever produced. TQ | TEAM INTELLIGENCE is an operating system for Higher Performance teams, but TQ without direction is just a very sophisticated engine with no destination. The multiplication has to be pointed at something—and more importantly, away from something. That's the part most leadership development programs forget entirely. The Diagnosis: The Polite Mediocrity Trap Let's talk about this like adults who've survived enough strategic planning retreats to know the difference between a vision statement and a conviction. Here's what Milwaukee figured out that most educational institutions haven't: being excellent at something requires being honest about what you're against. Milwaukee makes tools for professionals who cannot afford equipment failure under real conditions. That's the for. But the conviction that makes it mean something? They're against the race to the bottom. Against cheap materials dressed up in professional branding. Against the assumption that the person in the field will just deal with it. That against is what makes the for believable. Now walk into most school district or university cabinets and ask: What are we against? Not diplomatically. Not in the language of strategic planning documents. What are you actually done tolerating? You'll hear one of two things. Silence—the professionally calibrated kind, where everyone waits to see who speaks first so they can calibrate their answer. Or a list so abstract it could describe any institution in your state: inequity, mediocrity, the status quo. ("The status quo" is not an oppositional conviction. It's a placeholder dressed up as one. Every institution claims to be against the status quo while carefully maintaining it. If you're against the status quo, name the specific element in your specific institution that you are specifically done accepting. Then watch the room.) The root cause isn't cowardice. It's architecture. Most cabinets have been built—entirely by accident, over years of professional socialization—to reward the performance of alignment and punish genuine conviction. The person who says what they're actually against gets labeled 'difficult.' The person who nods and complains in the parking lot gets labeled 'collegial.' The system selects against exactly what you need. (This is the specific gap THE TEAM INSTITUTE closes—not by making your people better individually, but by building the collective architecture that makes shared conviction possible and safe to name. More on that in a moment.) The Framework: Conviction Architecture Call it the Conviction Architecture. Three dimensions. All required. None of them optional if you want to build something people actually fight to be part of. This isn't complicated. It's just uncomfortable. 1. The Affirmative Conviction — What You're Actually Building Not what you're open to building. Not what you're committed to exploring. What you are actually, specifically, irreversibly building. Here's the test I run with every leader I work with: The Substitution Test. Take your vision statement, your priority framework, your strategic plan—and replace your institution's name with any other institution in your state. Does the document still work? If yes, you don't have a conviction. You have a template. A conviction doesn't survive substitution. "We believe the students in this zip code are capable of competing with any student in this state, and we are done accepting systems that assume otherwise" does not survive substitution. That's a conviction. It names something real, creates real friction, and tells you exactly what the institution is willing to fight for. Milwaukee's affirmative conviction survives substitution. You cannot swap their name into a DeWalt brand statement and have it still be true. The specificity is the point. 2. The Oppositional Conviction — What You're Done Tolerating This is the one most educational leaders refuse to develop publicly. And it is precisely this one that generates loyalty. Think about the leaders in your network who you'd follow anywhere. Every single one of them can tell you—without diplomatic hedging—what they're done tolerating. The assumption that their community's kids are somebody else's problem. The budget process that rewards volume over vision. The professional development ritual that consumes three days per year and changes nothing by the following Monday. They name these things. In public. In front of people who disagree with them. And here's what happens: The people who came for the title or the proximity to power quietly find somewhere else to be. The people who believe in the same things become ferociously loyal—not because they were recruited, but because they were finally in a room where someone said the thing they'd been thinking for years. That's what Milwaukee does with every product decision. They're not trying to be the tool brand for everyone who has ever needed a tool. They're for the professional who needs the equipment to actually work. That specificity makes some people feel excluded. It makes the right people feel seen. The people who feel seen become evangelists. The evangelists bring more people who feel seen. The question for you: What are you done pretending is acceptable?? The answer to that question is the center of your leadership brand. Most leaders never say it out loud. The ones who do build institutions worth following. 3. The Relational Conviction — Who You're Specifically For Cult-level loyalty—the healthy kind—isn't built on quality alone. It's built on the audience's specificity. Milwaukee isn't for every person who has ever held a drill. They're for the professional-grade user who needs equipment that doesn't fail under real conditions. That specificity is what makes their core audience feel genuinely chosen—not accommodated, chosen. Most leaders have been trained to lead for everyone. And while that breadth is appropriate in service delivery, it's corrosive in leadership identity. In cabinet terms: Are you building for the people on your team who are ready to genuinely commit to transformation? Or are you designing initiatives that don't make the least committed person in the room uncomfortable? You cannot do both. The attempt produces exactly the kind of universally-tolerated, nobody-evangelizes-for-it mediocrity that keeps institutions performing at 60% of their actual capacity. The Case Study Let me tell you about a superintendent I'll call Renata. (Not her real name—but Renata, if you're reading this, you've told this story better than I'm about to.) Renata inherited a district led, for eleven years, by a superintendent who was universally well-regarded. Stable board relationships. Decent outcomes. A cabinet that had mastered the art of professional consensus. Nobody was passionate. Nobody was difficult. The district persisted. Renata's first act was not a strategic plan. It was a statement—shared with her cabinet, then her board, then her community—about what her district was done tolerating. She was against the assumption that kids in her zip code couldn't compete academically with those in the wealthier neighboring district. Against professional development that consumed teacher time without producing classroom change. Against administrative processes built for system convenience at the expense of family access. She named these things specifically, publicly, in front of people who were not entirely comfortable hearing them. Two cabinet members who couldn't align with the oppositional conviction left within eighteen months. Renata calls those "the first round of clarity costs." She paid them without drama. Three years later: enrollment grew for the first time in a decade. Not from a marketing campaign. From word of mouth. Families in adjacent districts started talking. Teachers began applying who had heard, through the professional network, that this was a place that knew what it was building. The board member who pushed back hardest in year one told Renata at her third-year evaluation that she was the best hire the board had ever made. Renata didn't build loyalty by being easy to like. She built it by being impossible to mistake. People knew exactly what she was building and exactly what she refused to accept. The people who wanted to build that thing with her became evangelists. Without being asked. If you're reading this thinking, 'I know what I'm against—but my cabinet doesn't share it yet'—that's the specific gap THE TEAM INSTITUTE closes. Shared conviction isn't installed through a memo or a retreat. It's built sequentially, through structured collective development that turns eight individual perspectives into one team that multiplies. Schedule a consultation to explore whether this is the right moment for your cabinet. Whether you work with us or not, here's what you can do Monday morning. The Application: Three Conviction Moves Here's what to do Monday morning (assuming you're not already in crisis mode, in which case, bookmark this and do it Tuesday): Step 1: Write the 'We're Done With' List (20 minutes, alone, before anyone else is in the room) Not a cabinet exercise. Just you. Finish this sentence ten times: "We are done tolerating ________." Don't edit for diplomacy. Write the actual list. The budget process that rewards whoever complains loudest over whoever thinks most clearly. The board dynamic that turns every cabinet meeting into a performance. The strategic initiative that gets launched with full cabinet 'support' and quietly starved of resources by March. Now read the list. The items that make you slightly nervous—the ones where you thought 'I can't actually say that publicly'—circle those. That nervousness is the signal. That's where your real conviction lives. That's the version of your leadership that builds institutions people can't stop talking about. This is the same move Milwaukee made before they built the packout system. They asked: what are we done tolerating in the way professionals organize and transport tools? The answer produced something people 3D-print custom attachments for in their spare time. Your 'done tolerating' list has the same generative potential. Step 2: Run the Substitution Test on Your Strategic Plan (15 minutes) Pull your most recent strategic plan. Replace your institution's name with any other institution in your state. Does the document still work? If yes, you have a placeholder. The conviction isn't in the plan—it's in you. The work is surfacing it, not writing a new plan. Find one sentence in that document that could only be true of your institution, your community, your specific moment. If you can't find one, write one. That sentence is your starting point. Step 3: Say One True Thing in Your Next Cabinet Meeting Just one. In the room. Without the diplomatic hedge at the end. "I want to name something we've been tolerating that I'm no longer willing to tolerate." Then name it specifically. Three things will happen: Someone agrees immediately—that's your first ally. Someone pushes back—that pushback is the most useful data you'll get all month. Or nobody reacts—which means you're in a consent-theater dynamic and you have a different problem to solve first. All three outcomes are more useful than another meeting where everyone nodded and nothing changed by Thursday. Two Objections, Handled: "I can't afford to alienate anyone." You're currently alienating the most committed people on your team by leading as if their conviction has to wait for the least committed person in the room to be ready. That's not caution. That's how you lose your best people to institutions where someone finally said what they were actually building. "My board would never accept this." Renata's board had the same concern. The board member who pushed back hardest is the one who called her the best hire in the district's history. Conviction doesn't lose boards. What loses boards is a leader who can't articulate what they're building clearly enough for the board to get behind it. The Maturity Shift Immature leaders think: "My job is to build consensus around a shared vision." Mature leaders think: "My job is to build a shared conviction strong enough to hold when consensus breaks down." Immature leaders make the vision broad enough that nobody can disagree with it. Mature leaders make the conviction specific enough that only the right people can commit to it. Immature leaders celebrate a full room. Mature leaders ask why everyone in the room describes a different institution when you ask what they're building. Here's the uncomfortable truth: A team without shared conviction doesn't multiply. It averages. Eight individually excellent people, each carrying their own unspoken direction, produce the mean of those directions. The safest course. The least offensive. The least transformative. The one that keeps the district or university exactly where it is while consuming 100% of everyone's capacity to keep it there. The 987 leadership teams in our research who moved from 60% capacity to 90% capacity didn't get there by becoming individually smarter. They got there by developing a shared conviction about what they were building—and what they were done accepting—and multiplying that conviction together. That's what TEAM INTELLIGENCE actually means when it works: not eight people performing alignment, but eight people genuinely committed to the same thing. Sequential investment creates compounding conviction. The Milwaukee packout didn't become a cult object because the first box was remarkable. It became one because every subsequent piece was designed to fit into and enhance what came before. Your cabinet works the same way. Your turn: What's one thing your institution is genuinely against—not officially, not diplomatically, but actually against—that has never been named out loud in a cabinet meeting? Drop it in the comments. Not for performance. Because naming it is the first step to building a team that shares it. Tag someone who you've watched lead with a backbone—someone who says the true thing in the room where it costs something to say it. They deserve to be recognized for it. THE TEAM INSTITUTE Most leadership development programs spend eight hours building individual capacity and return your cabinet to a collective system designed to neutralize exactly what they just developed. Your people come back sharper. They return to a meeting culture that hasn't changed. The individual work doesn't transfer. You know this. You've watched it happen. You've paid for it more than once. THE TEAM INSTITUTE is an 8-month developmental journey that builds what your cabinet is actually missing—not individual skill, but collective architecture. The trust that makes honest conviction safe to name. The shared language that makes it portable across the team. The sequential development—from individual clarity to collective commitment to organizational multiplication—that turns eight excellent individuals into a team that genuinely compounds. Month by month, your cabinet builds what no single training or retreat ever produced: a shared operating system with a shared direction. The kind where someone on your team becomes an unpaid evangelist for what you're building—not because you asked them to, but because they finally found something worth talking about. From our research across 987 leadership teams : 3x performance improvement. 29% higher engagement. 27% better organizational outcomes. Zero burnout increase. One requirement: full leadership team participation. Partial conviction is not conviction. It's a majority position. If you recognize the gap between what you're building and what your team has actually committed to—schedule a 30-minute consultation to explore whether THE TEAM INSTITUTE is the right intervention for your cabinet right now. This is a conversation between people who are done tolerating leadership development that returns brilliant individuals to a broken collective system and calls the investment complete. https://www.higherperformancegroup.com/team-institute Found Value in This? Help other leaders find it: → Repost with the one thing your institution is actually against that's never been named publicly. The leaders who read this need to know they're not alone in carrying that conviction. → @Tag a leader with a backbone. Someone you've watched say the true thing in the room where it cost something to say it. Name them specifically. → Comment with your Substitution Test result: Does your strategic plan survive having your name replaced with any other institution in your state? Yes or No. The comments will tell you something about your peers you won't hear anywhere else. The more leaders who move from performed alignment to shared conviction, the better our educational institutions become. Follow DR. JOE HILL and Higher Performance Group for weekly Team Intelligence insights. Next Issue "Your Cabinet Doesn't Actually Disagree With You (And That's the Problem)" We'll explore why the most dangerous dynamic in educational leadership isn't conflict—it's the professional performance of agreement, while the real conversation happens in the parking lot.  Spoiler: Your last strategic plan didn't die in implementation. It died the moment everyone nodded, and nobody meant it.
By HPG Info March 17, 2026
THE SPRING BREAK 2026 REVEAL A short dispatch from Tucson — and the most honest picture of burnout I've ever seen ☀️ Tucson. Spring break. Bear Down country. Ms. Becky and I buzzed to dinner at one of our favorite spots near the Catalinas. Good food, great views, the kind of evening you actually protect on your calendar. We pull into the parking lot. I open my door. And I stop. Because the car next to ours has a spare tire mounted on the back that is — there is no other word for it — destroyed. Shredded down to the steel belts. Rubber hanging off the rim in thick, ragged strips like something took a bite out of it. It doesn't look like a blowout. It looks like the tire lost a long argument with physics and physics won decisively. I pull out my phone. Ms. Becky does the thing she does — that specific eye roll that communicates, with remarkable efficiency: "Joe. Could you just. Not." 
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