5 (Faulty) Assumptions That Will Further Shrink Your Enrollment in the Year Ahead

March 7, 2023

Is the world changing?


Nope. It has changed. 


Leading a campus (or a district of campuses) in the new world of work has been more than complex. 


What enhances the struggle is when your assumptions about the future are false. 


Recently, Ms. Becky (my wife) and I embarked on a winter hike that we planned would take a few hours in our home state of Minnesota. The snow and ice on the trail were a bit more than planned, causing us to cancel our dinner plans with friends that evening. 

puzzle pieces

The hike was beautiful, but our delay was discouraging. 


Isn’t it better to know it will be difficult and find it a bit easier than to think things will be easy and find them super challenging?


What’s true in life is especially true in leadership.


Over the past 18 months, I have encountered more than a few delusional leaders working from conventional strategies for bolstering campus enrollment that, in all likelihood, won’t pan out.


Your performance will grow if you get your assumptions dialed in and work your plan with focus. 


Here are the five (faulty) assumptions that will further shrink your enrollment in the year ahead.


1. What worked before is going to work again.


A crisis is both a revealer and an accelerator.


The crisis of the last few years has accomplished two things across every campus. It’s revealed what’s working and what isn’t. And it’s sped up the consequences of both.


While a few systems have seen rapid growth during the crisis, most are recovering. Just last week, I found myself in the middle of an executive leadership conversation hinging on the question, “should we host a town hall meeting to say that we are up in enrollment (over last year) when in reality, we are still 18% down since 2020.”


On the one hand, it is
right to celebrate gains to foster hope, but on the other hand, campus leaders must be clear in “right-sizing” their budgets without confusing their people. 


How can you be up in enrollment and cutting programs right?


Because crisis both reveals and accelerates, perhaps you’re seeing today what your campus would have looked like in 2030 without a healthy course correction. 


As sobering as that might be, perhaps it’s a gift.


If the old
 approach allowed for Lucky Growth (we built it, and they will come), the accelerated decline could be a gift to help you see that a new Leading Growth approach is needed.


If the old approach isn’t replicating growth, trying harder in that space won’t bring different results, no matter how hard you grind.


And if the old model wasn’t working before, it will probably not work again, no matter how sincere you are, how loudly you command your people, or how desperate you feel.


The time has finally come for campus leaders to double down on the mission and experiment with the methods.


2. The building will be the center of education.


At the heart of every declining system is the over-reliance on buildings as the focal point of all learning engagement.


What if the future of transforming lives has left the building? 


By this, I don’t mean that campus sites across the country should abandon gathering. The future of education is (and will always be) in
community. 


Decentralized, distributed, and small group is the future of learning in the new world. 


Somehow, education fell into the assumption that for quality engagement to occur, it was fixed within the construct of a campus (with a mascot), four walls to a classroom, and two covers to a book. 


And that is observed by cramming humans into auditoriums, rows, and other settings where dialogue isn’t really encouraged.


You may still be shocked and frustrated by the surprisingly low return-to-campus attendance trends this semester.


What if the people you’re looking for haven’t left? What if they’ve just left your building? 

 

Plug your nose because this truth stinks, for sure. Many of your learners are gone for good. 


No questions. No arguing. 


Those missing may not be leaving the educational pipeline altogether. They may not even be leaving your system.


They’re just not returning to YOUR building, and perhaps they won’t even after the pandemic is a distant memory.


I’m not saying this is good (I don’t like it either). I am saying it’s real. 


Leaders who cooperate with reality do far better than those who fall victim (and complain about it).


Here’s what’s critical. Your mission isn’t dead. 

  • Your commitment to academic excellence and student success.
  • Your dedication to equity and inclusion.
  • Your partnership with families and the community.
  • Your emphasis on professional development and ongoing learning.
  • Your commitment to accountability and transparency.


But your methods might be on life support.


What if the BUILDING as a method is getting in the way of thriving in delivering your mission?



At the end of 2023, what would it feel like to be ahead again?


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➜ Sacrifice self and family on the altar of work.

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➜ Juggle more priorities than what we can complete.


Worst of all, other people — other tasks, jobs, and projects — will continue to hijack your life.


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3. You don’t need to take virtual learning that seriously.


The rallying cry – “EVERYONE GET BACK TO THE BUILDING” that so many college presidents and district superintendents have shouted over the last year still surprises me.


Add to that the consistent and critical dismissal of virtual learning as a quality option for mission delivery. I’m not talking about your website, live stream, and social media upgrades. I’m referring to the notion that your online presence is likely underfunded and relegated to the middle of someone’s job description.


Too many campus sites have a Web1 presence as Web2 peaks, and Web3 emerges, yet still wonder why they can’t grow enrollment.


For a primer on Web3 and the “metaverse” in education, I highly recommend reading
What Does Web3 in Education mean for the future of teaching and learning. 


Most campuses spend 90-98% of their learning budget on in-person education in an era where fewer people attend in-person school than ever.


Please hear me out. Each campus MUST do in-person learning exceptionally well.


But you are losing significant traction when your system spends a tiny fraction of its time and resources serving and prospecting your current and future learners in the virtual economy. 


The good news is that sometimes online engagement will lead to in-person. 


Sometimes it doesn’t.


The point is that everyone you want to reach IS online. If you can’t engage people in cyberspace, you miss them and all the opportunity that comes with it.


4. The future will be linear.


There was a season in leadership from the 1980s through the mid-2010s where leadership was more straightforward because progress (in both technology and society) was linear.


There were a few recessions and setbacks along the way, but it was usually only a matter of time until things started moving forward again in a predictable fashion. While that wasn’t true in every organization, it was culturally true across education.


The mid-2010s ushered in the first waves of instability (division, deeper partisanship, rage, and the severe questioning of institutions), all serving as a massive wave disrupting the patterns we knew and had come to trust. 


The pandemic and ensuing global crisis accelerated the destabilization even further.


Leaders of geopolitical thought predict that the future will be unpredictable (how’s that for a prediction?). 


The future will be less linear, unstable, and complex than anything ANYONE has led before. 


This is unchartered territory. Thinking the future will be linear and predictable only sets you and your team up for more heartbreak and anger.


You know the stoic line, “the secret to happiness is low expectations?”


Having lower expectations for predictability and embracing the probability of instability will better prepare you to lead your team and system successfully. 


Agile leaders and teams thrive in periods of rapid change, and if you’re ready for it, you can be one of those leaders and one of those systems.


For more on this, you may want to take another look at my post,
4 Big Signs to Guarantee your Performance Won’t Turn Around.


5.
Running hard like your hair is on fire is the only way to fix this.


Many leaders have been running so hard for so long, grinding under the false hope that the next quarter/new semester/new year will bring new hope.


Has it?


This leaves you with the question, “how long can I run at this pace?”


For most leaders, the meter expired months or years ago. And that leaves you exhausted, looking ahead at an impossible future.


Exhaustion is the gateway to terrible decision-making, moral failure, burnout, ineffectiveness, and chronic underperformance. 


Why? 


Running at an unsustainable pace will leave you too tired to think about innovation and without the energy to dare, risk, or execute.


This has to be the season for you to focus—to find a sustainable pace.


It’s no shock that one of the first casualties of working too hard is a loss of creativity. As 
Adam Grant has pointed out, great ideas take time and margin to develop and often involve experimentation and failure.


And most importantly, creativity is linked to slowing down and creating space for the creative process to ferment and grow (Adam’s 
2016 TED talk would be good therapy right now, by the way).


If finding a sustainable pace has been elusive for you (as it has for most leaders), I’d love to help you find one.
Book a Free Virtual Coffee Here for a pep talk and a free consultation for effectively managing your meeting triage.


Running hard indefinitely isn’t the way to fix a problem—it’s actually the way to break you.




Identify and Break Through Your Growth Barriers.


Enroll Your Team in the Lead Team Institute 


  • What used to work isn’t working anymore. What do I do next? 
  • Why don’t we see results, even when we’re putting in the effort? 
  • What’s the right decision for the future when everything is so uncertain? 


The Institute
is for you if you are a Campus President, District Administrator, or a Public Sector Executive Director looking to Optimize Higher Team Performance. 


Escape the struggle today by joining a vibrant cohort where leaders share strategies and ideas to help each other Reclaim Momentum. 

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Set up a
Virtual Coffee HERE to learn more. 



More Blog Articles

By HPG Info • October 7, 2026
This fall, a student in your district or on your campus will get caught letting ChatGPT write an essay. There will be a meeting, a policy citation, maybe a zero. That same week, someone in your cabinet will let ChatGPT write a board memo. That one gets a thank-you. We built entire academic integrity policies on one simple idea: if you didn't do the thinking, you don't own the work. Then we quietly exempted ourselves. Try this before your next cabinet meeting. Pull up the last recommendation someone on your team sent you: the budget reduction scenarios, the enrollment projection summary, the draft revision to the attendance policy. Ask the person who wrote it to walk you through the reasoning behind their second option, from memory, with the document closed. If they hesitate, you've found something your AI rollout plan never measured. Your team is getting faster at producing work it can no longer explain. All fall, I've been asking superintendents and college presidents the same question as they plan for 2027: what are your people carrying into this year that no training or workshop seems to touch? The first answer keeps coming back as one line. Convince me this is still worthy work. The second answer, more often than I expected, is AI. Leaders can feel the work speeding up and their own grip on it loosening. In a 2025 MIT Media Lab study , researchers put EEG caps on 54 people and had them write essays. The group using ChatGPT showed the weakest brain connectivity of anyone in the study. Minutes after finishing, most of them couldn't accurately quote a single sentence from the essay they had just turned in. The researchers named the pattern cognitive debt: you save effort today and pay it back later in thinking you can no longer do. It's a small study, and the researchers themselves asked people to stop calling it proof that AI makes anyone dumb. Its message for leaders is simpler. Every prompt that does your thinking for you is a small withdrawal from the one asset your board actually hired. Every cabinet I know is using AI more this fall. Very few are getting smarter because of it. The Irony Nobody at the Board Table Has Named Both halves of our profession are under the same public question right now: can the people we serve still think? In Gallup's latest annual education poll , Americans rated K-12 schools worst on critical thinking out of the six areas measured. Twenty percent called the job schools do there excellent or good. Forty-seven percent called it poor. Presidents hear their own version from employers, legislators, and parents writing tuition checks, all asking whether a degree still proves a graduate can reason through a hard problem. Now picture the same week inside a typical cabinet. The strategic plan update was drafted by a chatbot and lightly edited for tone. The enrollment memo came back from AI, got a quick read, and went to the board. The accreditation narrative or the state report got the same treatment. Someone asked the tool which of three budget scenarios to recommend, and the recommendation it gave is now the cabinet's position. We are asking our schools and colleges to teach students to think while the adults at the top quietly hand their own thinking to a tool that has no stake in whether the institution succeeds. (Nobody at the table would say it out loud. It's awkward to admit the drafts got better while your ability to defend them got worse.) Lee Lambert , who leads the Foothill-De Anza Community College District , told me on Season 1 of The PROOF that he thinks of AI as his tenth Supreme Court justice. He won't panic about it, and he won't ignore it. That's the posture I want for every cabinet, K-12 or higher ed. Give the tool a seat at the table. Keep the gavel. A 2025 study from Microsoft Research and Carnegie Mellon , based on a survey of 319 knowledge workers, found the same pattern at work. The more people trusted generative AI to handle a task, the less critical thinking they reported putting into it. Confidence in the tool went up. Effort in the human went down. Here's the part that should reach you personally. When the tool thinks for an individual, the damage stays in one head. When it thinks for a cabinet, the damage spreads. Five people defer to the same draft, nobody owns the reasoning, and the meeting turns into a line edit of a document nobody built. I've spent years in the chair and have since sat in many presidents' cabinet rooms, and the lesson holds in both: a cabinet that can't explain its own decision will eventually be unable to defend it. (This is the gap THE TEAM INSTITUTE was built to close. Every vendor will train your people on the tool. We help cabinets build the collective judgment the tool is supposed to serve, so AI multiplies what your team already thinks. More on that in a moment.) TQ = IQ × EQ × PQ. AI can push the IQ side of your output up fast. It can't supply the EQ your team needs to disagree well, or the PQ, the perceptual accuracy, that tells you when a polished draft is wrong for the people in front of you. Let those two drift toward zero and every gain on the IQ side gets multiplied by almost nothing. The Human Intelligence Protocol Call this the Human Intelligence Protocol. Five practices that turn AI into a sparring partner. Each works for one leader and gets stronger when a whole cabinet runs it. Protect the Genius Hours. Sort all of your team's work into two zones. The compression zone is anything large, messy, or repetitive that needs to become smaller and clearer: meeting notes, update memos, survey comments, three conflicting reports on the same program. AI is excellent here. The contribution zone is where your judgment comes in: deciding what matters, reading the room, noticing the issue nobody has said out loud, and knowing that an answer can be technically correct and still wrong for this community. The mistake is handing AI the contribution zone because it can produce something that looks finished. A better prompt before your next cabinet meeting: "Organize these notes and updates into key decisions, risks, unresolved questions, and missing information. Do not make a recommendation." The tool organizes the landscape. The room still chooses the direction. Climb the Brief Ladder. Most leaders use AI like a drive-through window: "Write my board update." Vague request, average answer, polished and forgettable. The ladder has five rungs. The request says what you want. Context says who it's for and where it will land. The outcome says what it must accomplish. Constraints set the boundaries, like length, tone, and what to avoid. The standard shows what good looks like: an example, a rubric, your own best past work. The brief ladder is also the skill of delegating to a vice president, a provost, or an assistant superintendent. If you can't brief the tool clearly, you probably haven't briefed your team clearly either. (The quality of your prompt is a pretty honest mirror of the quality of your thinking.) Seat a Board of Minds. A good board asks the hard questions. Left alone, AI tends to tell you your idea is wonderful. So give it other seats at the table. The stakeholder board: "Name the five groups most affected by this decision. For each, tell me what they want, what they fear, and what they'll resist." (Parents, teachers, and the union in one chair. Faculty senate, students, and donors in the other.) The time board: "What does this decision look like after one week, one year, and five years?" The opposition board, which matters most: "I believe this is the right strategy. Build the strongest possible case that I'm wrong. Name my false assumptions and the conditions that would make this plan fail." This one has a team payoff most leaders miss. In a cabinet, dissent carries a social cost, so it often goes unspoken. When the tool plays the dissenter, nobody has to spend political capital to raise the hard objection, and the room can argue hard about the idea while the relationships stay intact. One rule stays firm: AI states wrong facts with total confidence. When a decision rests on facts, ask for sources and verify the important ones yourself. Build a Pressure Lab. Pilots train in simulators. Emergency teams run drills before the crisis. Most leaders walk into the budget hearing, the tense board work session, the faculty senate meeting, or the hard personnel conversation having rehearsed nothing but their talking points. Use AI as the simulator. "Act as a skeptical board member reviewing our proposed program cut. Ask one question at a time. Push back on vague answers and raise the difficulty as I respond. Don't coach me until we're done." Afterward: "Evaluate my answers for clarity, evidence, and conciseness. Show me where I sounded defensive." Then run it again. The same works for learning. Ask for friction on purpose: "If I get stuck, give me the smallest useful clue." Letting the tool remove every difficulty is like having a friend lift your weights at the gym. Use the Beginner Advantage. The higher leaders climb, the more expensive it feels to say "I don't understand." So they nod through the fund balance discussion, the CIO's pitch about AI agents, the retention dashboard, or state assessment data nobody has explained since the last accreditation visit. Then they search for the answer later, or never. AI gives you a private place to go back to basics. "Explain this with no assumed background, in plain language, with one example from a school district or a college." "What are the five terms I need before anything else makes sense?" "What do beginners usually get wrong?" Then run the teach-back test. Close the window, explain the idea out loud in your own words, and ask the tool what you got wrong. Tell it to help you repair your explanation without rewriting it. When the boss does this openly and says so in cabinet, basic questions become normal for everyone. What This Looks Like in a Real Team This is a composite, drawn from patterns across our 987 teams. I've watched it play out in district offices and in presidents' suites, and the only real difference is the vocabulary. A cabinet had three weeks to bring a painful reduction plan to its board. (In the district version, two programs were on the table. In the campus version, two academic programs were up for sunset review, and the faculty senate was already asking questions.) The first draft came from AI in an afternoon. It was clean, confident, and organized. In the first internal review, the board chair's likeliest question ("Why this program and not the other one?") got four different answers from four different senior leaders. So they changed the process. AI compressed six months of budget data into a two-page briefing with the open questions labeled. The cabinet argued out its own recommendation before any tool saw the problem. Then they seated the opposition board, asked for the strongest case against their plan, and found two assumptions they couldn't support. Finally, the top leader and the CFO each spent twenty minutes in a pressure lab with an AI playing their toughest board member. On the night of the vote, the board chair asked the hardest question, and every cabinet member who spoke gave the same answer in their own words. The next morning, the team could explain the plan to the people it affected. Same tool. Same people. What changed was the order: think first, then let the machine argue with you. Bad Season or Wrong Seat? Some of what leaders are feeling this fall is the AI speed-up. Some of it is older than any chatbot. When the work gets heavy, most of us carry one question we rarely say out loud: is this a bad season, or did I take the wrong seat? Season 1 guests of The PROOF answered that question on camera. Rick Cobb waited out a bad year, and the next one became one of his best. Amy Diaz, EdD saw that the problem was the shape of her role and stepped sideways into work that fit. Chris Lindholm runs the district with the longest school bus ride in America. In Everton, Missouri, 91% of Will Darter, Ed.D students live in poverty, and his campus tripled in size while enrollment dropped. On Wednesday, October 7 at 10:30 AM CT, Season 1 guests join our P2P Roundtable to talk it through live. One hour, peers only, no presentations, 30 seats, open to anyone leading systems and people in education. The question sounds the same in both chairs. You'll leave inspired, challenged, and equipped to lead as a BUILDER (not a climber, dreamer, or coaster). Save your seat: higherperformancegroup.com/p2p-page Bring your closed-document test result with you. It's a good place to start the conversation. Monday Morning Here's what to do Monday morning (assuming you're not already mid-crisis, in which case bookmark this and do it Tuesday). Step 1: Run the Zone Audit (20 minutes). Pull up last week's cabinet agenda. Mark each item C for compression or J for judgment. If yours looks like most, a big share of the meeting goes to C items: updates, report-outs, summaries of things people could have read. Now do the math: minutes spent on C items each week × people in the room × 40 meeting weeks. A cabinet of eight spending 45 minutes a week on report-outs burns 240 leader-hours a year, six full work weeks of senior judgment spent listening to things that could have been a pre-read. Step 2: Flip One Meeting (15 minutes of prep). Move every C item into an AI-organized pre-read with decisions, risks, and open questions labeled. Spend the entire meeting on J items. Watch who talks more when the report-outs disappear. (It's often the person who has been quietly waiting for a real conversation.) Step 3: Seat the Opposition (15 minutes, next cabinet meeting). Pick the decision you're most confident about. Put the opposition prompt on the screen and read the strongest case against your plan out loud as a team. Then ask one question: "Which of these objections can we answer, and which ones can't we?" "We don't have time to use AI more carefully." You're already spending it in the second meeting, where the plan gets rebuilt because nobody could defend the first version. Fifteen minutes with the opposition board is cheaper than one decision you have to take back in public. "My team won't use AI this way. They just want the draft." Of course they do. The draft is visible, and the thinking isn't. So make the thinking visible. Start one meeting a month with a single rule: nobody brings an AI draft until the room has built its own answer first. The Maturity Shift Immature leaders think: "AI makes us faster, so we should use it for everything." Mature leaders think: "AI makes us faster at whatever we already are. We'd better make sure what we are is worth speeding up." Immature leaders ask the tool for the answer. Mature leaders ask it for the landscape, the opposition, and the hardest question in the room, then decide for themselves. Every district and every college can buy the same software. The advantage goes to the cabinet that uses it to sharpen its judgment and widen what it can see. That is how the work stays worthy. Your turn: think about the last major recommendation your cabinet made. How much of the reasoning could the team still explain with the laptop closed? Bonus points if you run the closed-document test in your next meeting and tell us what happened. Most cabinets lack a clear read on the collective judgment underneath all those polished drafts, and whether the team can still think together with the tool turned off. That's the gap THE TEAM INSTITUTE closes. We measure how your cabinet thinks, decides, and perceives as a team, grounded in the TQ research behind IQ × EQ × PQ across 987 leadership teams. Cabinets that closed gaps like this saw performance improve roughly 3x, engagement rise 29%, and outcomes improve 27%, with no increase in burnout. If AI is about to multiply whatever your team already is, would it help to know exactly what that is first? Objectively? Get Started Here with the Team Intelligence Baseline Assessment Help another leader protect their team's thinking before the tools quietly take it over. Repost this with the practice you're trying first. Tag a leader whose cabinet is rolling out AI this fall. Or drop a comment with what the closed-document test turned up. P.S. If you plan a conference or member program for 2027, I built a keynote around that "convince me this is still worthy work" question. It's called The PROOF: higherperformancegroup.com/the-proof Follow DR. JOE HILL and Higher Performance Group
By HPG Info • September 29, 2026
Before your next leadership team meeting, try something uncomfortable. For each of your direct reports, name one person on the team who would notice if they went quiet for two weeks. Someone who would actually pick up the phone. If a name didn’t come right away for at least one of them, you just found the reason your next resignation letter will blindside you. Eighteen months before it’s written. Most superintendents and presidents have never run this check. Nothing on your dashboard measures it. Evaluations measure output. Board reports measure outcomes. Strategic plans measure progress against a timeline. All of it is a lagging indicator, proof of something that already happened. One layer underneath every number you track sits a leading indicator. It measures whether anyone on your cabinet belongs to anyone else on your cabinet. The best explanation I’ve found for it started in evolutionary psychology. Stick with me. It gets specific fast. Schools Already Measure This. For Fifteen-Year-Olds. Gallup’s newest numbers, released this month, put Americans’ satisfaction with K-12 education at 32%. That’s the lowest in 27 years of tracking, and down 11 points in two years. It’s the mood your board members carry into every meeting. Here’s the part almost nobody covered. The OECD’s PISA 2025 results landed the same month, and buried inside them is a finding that cuts the other way. In 39 education systems, more students now say they belong at school than in 2022. In 48, fewer say they feel lonely. And bullying, the clearest belonging-killer PISA tracks, is associated with lower performance. The people studying fifteen-year-olds treat belonging as a performance indicator worth measuring at scale. Nobody has told the people running cabinets full of grown adults that the same logic applies to them. Now look at your own cabinet. You already know its shape. Two or three people you’d call close. One or two you can’t quite read. And at least one who’s technically “on the team” and functionally on an island: capable, compliant, and quiet in exactly the way that gets mistaken for fine. Here’s the part nobody puts in the org chart. The isolated one is usually your best individual performer. High competence reads as self-sufficiency. Self-sufficiency reads as “doesn’t need checking on.” Call it Competence Camouflage The better someone is at the job, the less anyone asks how they’re actually doing. (Which means the person most likely to be running on empty is the one least likely to get asked.) Robin Dunbar’s research on relationship layers has taken some hits on its exact numbers. The layered structure has held up better than the math: roughly 150 people you know, 50 you’d call friends, 15 you’d call close, and at the center, about 5 you actually rely on. Strip away the precise figures and one finding survives every challenge. The number of people we lean on for real support is small, and it does not grow with the number of people we know. (This is the question THE TEAM INSTITUTE was built to help cabinets answer: does everyone have someone? We map the actual relational structure of a cabinet the way good schools already map it for kids, then help build the one or two structural fixes that close what the map finds. More on that in a moment.) This is the part where I’m supposed to tell you to build more team culture. You’ve already tried the retreat, the trust falls, and the personality assessment binder gathering dust on someone’s shelf. What you have is a measurement gap. You’ve been tracking IQ and output, the two variables everyone measures, and skipping the one that decides whether either shows up. That’s PQ: how accurately your team reads each other, including who’s quietly running on empty. IQ × EQ × PQ = Team Intelligence . Leave PQ near zero and the whole product lands near zero, no matter how good the other two look on paper. The One-Name Test Call this the One-Name Test. It’s simple enough that you don’t need a consultant to run it, which is probably why almost nobody does. 1. Run the Census. Most leaders assume their cabinet is connected because meetings happen and nobody’s complained. Quiet tells you nothing about connection. So run the actual census: for each direct report, name one other person on the team who would notice if they went quiet for two weeks. A blank is your first isolated node, and possibly your next resignation letter, eighteen months early. (This is why “we didn’t see it coming” is almost never true. Someone saw it. Their role just didn’t make noticing count.) 2. The Bar Is One. Dunbar’s layers get quoted for the big number, 150. The number that moves retention on a cabinet is the smallest one. A cabinet member doesn’t need five people. They need one: someone who asks a second time when the answer is “fine.” A single reliable connection is something you can build on purpose, on a Tuesday, with no retreat budget. 3. Build Proximity on Purpose. Every school does this for kids. Advisories, teams, lunch tables. The whole architecture of a building is a belonging machine, whether anyone says so out loud. Cabinets stop doing it for adults the day everyone gets a title. Standing 1:1s that skip the status update. Co-owned projects that put two people in a room who wouldn’t otherwise talk. A rotating pair for the hard conversations, so the same two people aren’t always carrying the room. This is structural work, and structure survives a bad quarter. This is a composite, drawn from patterns across our 987 teams, not one specific leader. A university cabinet: six vice presidents, all strong, all overcommitted, all evaluated individually, all scoring well. The quietest one ran the tightest division in the institution and hadn’t taken a real day off in over a year. Nobody flagged it. Her numbers were fine. Then she resigned, gave the standard reasons, and left the president genuinely confused. Six months later, that cabinet ran its first belonging census. Two more vice presidents had no named connection. The president hadn’t known. Neither had they, until someone asked directly. The fix took three standing 1:1s and one reshuffled project pairing. In the cabinets where we see this pattern, a fix that small is usually enough. What changed? Someone finally noticed who had nobody, and acted before the resignation letter instead of after. Gallup has tracked this for years: only about two in ten U.S. employees strongly agree they have a best friend at work. The ones who do are more engaged and less likely to leave. Look around your cabinet table and count how many of your people could say yes with confidence. Monday Morning Here’s what to do Monday morning (assuming you’re not already mid-crisis, in which case bookmark this and do it Tuesday). Step 1: Run the Census (20 minutes). List every direct report. Next to each name, write one other person on the team who would notice if they went quiet. If you don’t know, leave it blank. Don’t guess to make the page look better. The blanks are the whole point. Step 2: Start With the Loneliest Node (30 minutes). Whoever has the most blanks gets the first fix. That’s usually your highest performer, which is exactly why they keep getting skipped. Build one standing connection this week: a pairing, a recurring 1:1, or a co-owned project with someone they don’t already talk to. Step 3: Ask the Discovery Question (10 minutes, next cabinet meeting). Skip “how’s everyone doing.” Ask: “Is there anyone on this team who’d notice if you disappeared for two weeks?” Let the silence sit. Someone will answer honestly. That’s your opening. “We don’t have time for relationship-building.” Do the math on the alternative. Replacing a cabinet-level leader is commonly estimated at 1.5 to 2 times salary once you count the search, the interim, and the months of lost momentum. On a $180,000 vice president, that’s $270,000 to $360,000. The census takes twenty minutes. That’s less time than the last meeting that could have been an email. “My team is professionals, not middle schoolers who need a buddy system.” Professionals are exactly who this is for. The buddy system works on ten-year-olds because it’s honest about what humans need. Adults just got better at hiding when it’s missing, which is why it takes a census to find it instead of a glance across the cafeteria. The Maturity Shift Immature leaders think: “My cabinet has a performance problem, so we need better goals and clearer accountability.” Mature leaders think: “My cabinet might have a belonging problem wearing a performance costume, and accountability can’t catch what connection was supposed to.” Immature leaders treat isolation as a personality trait: some people are just private, just independent, just built that way. Mature leaders treat it as a structural gap, the same one they’d flag for a kid with no lunch table. It’s the same gap in a suit. Dunbar made 150 famous. The number that matters on your cabinet is one. Building a single connection for one person may be the highest-leverage thing you do this month, because if you don’t design it on purpose, you’ll find out by accident, usually in an exit interview. Your turn: pull up your cabinet roster right now. Whose name can’t you pair with anyone? Bonus points if you knew before you finished reading and just hadn’t said it out loud. If that name came to you fast, you already have what you need to start. What you probably don’t have is a structured way to find the ones you’re missing before one of them hands you a resignation letter. That’s the gap THE TEAM INSTITUTE closes. We map who’s connected and who isn’t across your whole cabinet, grounded in the TQ research behind IQ × EQ × PQ across 987 leadership teams. Cabinets that closed gaps like this saw performance improve roughly 3x, engagement rise 29%, and outcomes improve 27%, with no increase in burnout. If you already suspect someone on your team has nobody, would it help to know for certain, and to find the ones you’ve missed? Start here: THE TEAM INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT Whether or not this week is the right one for that, help another leader catch this before it costs them someone. Repost this with the one step you’re taking this week. Tag a fellow superintendent or president who needs to run this census. Or drop a comment with where your belonging plan stands.  Follow DR. JOE HILL and Higher Performance Group .
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