The hike was beautiful, but our delay was discouraging. 

Isn’t it better to know it will be difficult and find it a bit easier than to think things will be easy and find them super challenging?

What’s true in life is especially true in leadership.

Over the past 18 months, I have encountered more than a few delusional leaders working from conventional strategies for bolstering campus enrollment that, in all likelihood, won’t pan out.

Your performance will grow if you get your assumptions dialed in and work your plan with focus. 

Here are the five (faulty) assumptions that will further shrink your enrollment in the year ahead.

1. What worked before is going to work again.

A crisis is both a revealer and an accelerator.

The crisis of the last few years has accomplished two things across every campus. It’s revealed what’s working and what isn’t. And it’s sped up the consequences of both.

While a few systems have seen rapid growth during the crisis, most are recovering. Just last week, I found myself in the middle of an executive leadership conversation hinging on the question, “should we host a town hall meeting to say that we are up in enrollment (over last year) when in reality, we are still 18% down since 2020.”

On the one hand, it is right to celebrate gains to foster hope, but on the other hand, campus leaders must be clear in “right-sizing” their budgets without confusing their people. 

How can you be up in enrollment and cutting programs right?

Because crisis both reveals and accelerates, perhaps you’re seeing today what your campus would have looked like in 2030 without a healthy course correction. 

As sobering as that might be, perhaps it’s a gift.

If the old approach allowed for Lucky Growth (we built it, and they will come), the accelerated decline could be a gift to help you see that a new Leading Growth approach is needed.

If the old approach isn’t replicating growth, trying harder in that space won’t bring different results, no matter how hard you grind.

And if the old model wasn’t working before, it will probably not work again, no matter how sincere you are, how loudly you command your people, or how desperate you feel.

The time has finally come for campus leaders to double down on the mission and experiment with the methods.

2. The building will be the center of education.

At the heart of every declining system is the over-reliance on buildings as the focal point of all learning engagement.

What if the future of transforming lives has left the building? 

By this, I don’t mean that campus sites across the country should abandon gathering. The future of education is (and will always be) in community. 

Decentralized, distributed, and small group is the future of learning in the new world. 

Somehow, education fell into the assumption that for quality engagement to occur, it was fixed within the construct of a campus (with a mascot), four walls to a classroom, and two covers to a book. 

And that is observed by cramming humans into auditoriums, rows, and other settings where dialogue isn’t really encouraged.

You may still be shocked and frustrated by the surprisingly low return-to-campus attendance trends this semester.

What if the people you’re looking for haven’t left? What if they’ve just left your building? 

Plug your nose because this truth stinks, for sure. Many of your learners are gone for good. 

No questions. No arguing. 

Those missing may not be leaving the educational pipeline altogether. They may not even be leaving your system.

They’re just not returning to YOUR building, and perhaps they won’t even after the pandemic is a distant memory.

I’m not saying this is good (I don’t like it either). I am saying it’s real. 

Leaders who cooperate with reality do far better than those who fall victim (and complain about it).

Here’s what’s critical. Your mission isn’t dead. 

• Your commitment to academic excellence and student success.
• Your dedication to equity and inclusion.
• Your partnership with families and the community.
• Your emphasis on professional development and ongoing learning.
• Your commitment to accountability and transparency.

But your methods might be on life support.

What if the BUILDING as a method is getting in the way of thriving in delivering your mission?

At the end of 2023, what would it feel like to be ahead again?

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