5 (Faulty) Assumptions That Will Further Shrink Your Enrollment in the Year Ahead

March 7, 2023

Is the world changing?


Nope. It has changed. 


Leading a campus (or a district of campuses) in the new world of work has been more than complex. 


What enhances the struggle is when your assumptions about the future are false. 


Recently, Ms. Becky (my wife) and I embarked on a winter hike that we planned would take a few hours in our home state of Minnesota. The snow and ice on the trail were a bit more than planned, causing us to cancel our dinner plans with friends that evening. 

puzzle pieces

The hike was beautiful, but our delay was discouraging. 


Isn’t it better to know it will be difficult and find it a bit easier than to think things will be easy and find them super challenging?


What’s true in life is especially true in leadership.


Over the past 18 months, I have encountered more than a few delusional leaders working from conventional strategies for bolstering campus enrollment that, in all likelihood, won’t pan out.


Your performance will grow if you get your assumptions dialed in and work your plan with focus. 


Here are the five (faulty) assumptions that will further shrink your enrollment in the year ahead.


1. What worked before is going to work again.


A crisis is both a revealer and an accelerator.


The crisis of the last few years has accomplished two things across every campus. It’s revealed what’s working and what isn’t. And it’s sped up the consequences of both.


While a few systems have seen rapid growth during the crisis, most are recovering. Just last week, I found myself in the middle of an executive leadership conversation hinging on the question, “should we host a town hall meeting to say that we are up in enrollment (over last year) when in reality, we are still 18% down since 2020.”


On the one hand, it is
right to celebrate gains to foster hope, but on the other hand, campus leaders must be clear in “right-sizing” their budgets without confusing their people. 


How can you be up in enrollment and cutting programs right?


Because crisis both reveals and accelerates, perhaps you’re seeing today what your campus would have looked like in 2030 without a healthy course correction. 


As sobering as that might be, perhaps it’s a gift.


If the old
 approach allowed for Lucky Growth (we built it, and they will come), the accelerated decline could be a gift to help you see that a new Leading Growth approach is needed.


If the old approach isn’t replicating growth, trying harder in that space won’t bring different results, no matter how hard you grind.


And if the old model wasn’t working before, it will probably not work again, no matter how sincere you are, how loudly you command your people, or how desperate you feel.


The time has finally come for campus leaders to double down on the mission and experiment with the methods.


2. The building will be the center of education.


At the heart of every declining system is the over-reliance on buildings as the focal point of all learning engagement.


What if the future of transforming lives has left the building? 


By this, I don’t mean that campus sites across the country should abandon gathering. The future of education is (and will always be) in
community. 


Decentralized, distributed, and small group is the future of learning in the new world. 


Somehow, education fell into the assumption that for quality engagement to occur, it was fixed within the construct of a campus (with a mascot), four walls to a classroom, and two covers to a book. 


And that is observed by cramming humans into auditoriums, rows, and other settings where dialogue isn’t really encouraged.


You may still be shocked and frustrated by the surprisingly low return-to-campus attendance trends this semester.


What if the people you’re looking for haven’t left? What if they’ve just left your building? 

 

Plug your nose because this truth stinks, for sure. Many of your learners are gone for good. 


No questions. No arguing. 


Those missing may not be leaving the educational pipeline altogether. They may not even be leaving your system.


They’re just not returning to YOUR building, and perhaps they won’t even after the pandemic is a distant memory.


I’m not saying this is good (I don’t like it either). I am saying it’s real. 


Leaders who cooperate with reality do far better than those who fall victim (and complain about it).


Here’s what’s critical. Your mission isn’t dead. 

  • Your commitment to academic excellence and student success.
  • Your dedication to equity and inclusion.
  • Your partnership with families and the community.
  • Your emphasis on professional development and ongoing learning.
  • Your commitment to accountability and transparency.


But your methods might be on life support.


What if the BUILDING as a method is getting in the way of thriving in delivering your mission?



At the end of 2023, what would it feel like to be ahead again?


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Worst of all, other people — other tasks, jobs, and projects — will continue to hijack your life.


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3. You don’t need to take virtual learning that seriously.


The rallying cry – “EVERYONE GET BACK TO THE BUILDING” that so many college presidents and district superintendents have shouted over the last year still surprises me.


Add to that the consistent and critical dismissal of virtual learning as a quality option for mission delivery. I’m not talking about your website, live stream, and social media upgrades. I’m referring to the notion that your online presence is likely underfunded and relegated to the middle of someone’s job description.


Too many campus sites have a Web1 presence as Web2 peaks, and Web3 emerges, yet still wonder why they can’t grow enrollment.


For a primer on Web3 and the “metaverse” in education, I highly recommend reading
What Does Web3 in Education mean for the future of teaching and learning. 


Most campuses spend 90-98% of their learning budget on in-person education in an era where fewer people attend in-person school than ever.


Please hear me out. Each campus MUST do in-person learning exceptionally well.


But you are losing significant traction when your system spends a tiny fraction of its time and resources serving and prospecting your current and future learners in the virtual economy. 


The good news is that sometimes online engagement will lead to in-person. 


Sometimes it doesn’t.


The point is that everyone you want to reach IS online. If you can’t engage people in cyberspace, you miss them and all the opportunity that comes with it.


4. The future will be linear.


There was a season in leadership from the 1980s through the mid-2010s where leadership was more straightforward because progress (in both technology and society) was linear.


There were a few recessions and setbacks along the way, but it was usually only a matter of time until things started moving forward again in a predictable fashion. While that wasn’t true in every organization, it was culturally true across education.


The mid-2010s ushered in the first waves of instability (division, deeper partisanship, rage, and the severe questioning of institutions), all serving as a massive wave disrupting the patterns we knew and had come to trust. 


The pandemic and ensuing global crisis accelerated the destabilization even further.


Leaders of geopolitical thought predict that the future will be unpredictable (how’s that for a prediction?). 


The future will be less linear, unstable, and complex than anything ANYONE has led before. 


This is unchartered territory. Thinking the future will be linear and predictable only sets you and your team up for more heartbreak and anger.


You know the stoic line, “the secret to happiness is low expectations?”


Having lower expectations for predictability and embracing the probability of instability will better prepare you to lead your team and system successfully. 


Agile leaders and teams thrive in periods of rapid change, and if you’re ready for it, you can be one of those leaders and one of those systems.


For more on this, you may want to take another look at my post,
4 Big Signs to Guarantee your Performance Won’t Turn Around.


5.
Running hard like your hair is on fire is the only way to fix this.


Many leaders have been running so hard for so long, grinding under the false hope that the next quarter/new semester/new year will bring new hope.


Has it?


This leaves you with the question, “how long can I run at this pace?”


For most leaders, the meter expired months or years ago. And that leaves you exhausted, looking ahead at an impossible future.


Exhaustion is the gateway to terrible decision-making, moral failure, burnout, ineffectiveness, and chronic underperformance. 


Why? 


Running at an unsustainable pace will leave you too tired to think about innovation and without the energy to dare, risk, or execute.


This has to be the season for you to focus—to find a sustainable pace.


It’s no shock that one of the first casualties of working too hard is a loss of creativity. As 
Adam Grant has pointed out, great ideas take time and margin to develop and often involve experimentation and failure.


And most importantly, creativity is linked to slowing down and creating space for the creative process to ferment and grow (Adam’s 
2016 TED talk would be good therapy right now, by the way).


If finding a sustainable pace has been elusive for you (as it has for most leaders), I’d love to help you find one.
Book a Free Virtual Coffee Here for a pep talk and a free consultation for effectively managing your meeting triage.


Running hard indefinitely isn’t the way to fix a problem—it’s actually the way to break you.




Identify and Break Through Your Growth Barriers.


Enroll Your Team in the Lead Team Institute 


  • What used to work isn’t working anymore. What do I do next? 
  • Why don’t we see results, even when we’re putting in the effort? 
  • What’s the right decision for the future when everything is so uncertain? 


The Institute
is for you if you are a Campus President, District Administrator, or a Public Sector Executive Director looking to Optimize Higher Team Performance. 


Escape the struggle today by joining a vibrant cohort where leaders share strategies and ideas to help each other Reclaim Momentum. 

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Ready to change the trajectory of your campus?


Set up a
Virtual Coffee HERE to learn more. 



More Blog Articles

By HPG Info • November 2, 2026
Why a leadership team full of great hires still drops the ball The Brewers won the World Series Wednesday night, 4–1 over the Rays in Game 5. It’s the first title in the franchise’s 57 years. Ms. Becky and I are building our shack in Wisconsin, so we’re officially on the bandwagon. Baseball is the sport where stacking stars most reliably buys wins. Each hitter stands alone at the plate. Add a great one and the win column moves. Basketball works differently. The NBA teams with the most stars on the roster win less than their talent says they should. Ten seasons of data say so, and so does anyone who has watched a superteam forget how to pass in the fourth quarter. Your leadership team plays basketball. Most of us hired it like a baseball roster. Every superintendent and president I talk to has hired at least one person they'd call the best they've ever worked with. A finance chief who reads a budget like a novel. A chief academic officer the faculty actually trust, which is rarer than a balanced budget. An HR lead who knows every contract clause by heart. Then a hard season shows up. A budget gap, a referendum, a bargaining year, an enrollment dip. The room full of all-stars starts pulling in different directions, each one excellent, each one alone. Everybody is playing hard. Nobody is playing together. So here's a question to sit with before your next leadership team meeting: when did you last hire someone for how well they pass? THE DIAGNOSIS · A ROOM FULL OF FINISHED REPORTS Picture a Tuesday morning leadership meeting in November. Finance brings a projection. HR brings a staffing plan built on last spring's numbers. Teaching and learning brings a new intervention model that needs four positions nobody budgeted. Each report is sharp and finished, and none of them were built with the others in the room. The real meeting happens in the parking lot at 11:40, two people at a time, engines running. Nobody at that table is underperforming. That's what makes the problem so hard to name. Your evaluations say everyone is excellent, and they're right. We built it this way. Job postings, interviews and annual reviews all measure the individual, and nobody's contract lists assists. We hire for points, pay for points, and then act surprised when nobody passes. Three questions worth answering honestly: How many of your top five priorities can one person on your team deliver alone? When a hand-off between two of your leaders drops, who finds out first, you or your board? When the next three months get harder, does your team pass faster, or does everyone retreat to their own lane? I know the loneliness of being the one person at the table who sees how all the pieces connect. I've sat in that chair. For a long stretch, my teams underperformed despite being full of talented people, and I kept trying to close the gap with my own effort. That works about as well as a point guard deciding to also play center. In The TQ Advantage, I call the result the Individual Brilliance Ceiling: talented people in the wrong positions, with no shared way of working, producing average team results. 📊 60% of collective capacity: where most leadership teams run, across nearly 1,000 TQ assessments . The talent is there. The passing is missing. TQ = IQ × EQ × PQ. IQ is the talent you hired. EQ is the shared language that lets that talent coordinate under pressure. PQ is each leader's accurate read of where they play best and where they're covering. It's multiplication, so a zero anywhere wins. Stack the IQ, let the other two sit near zero, and the product stays small no matter how many stars you sign. A quick timeout before the research. If one of those three questions made you wince, that wince is data. Most leadership teams I work with can name their best individual performer in two seconds and can't produce a single written hand-off. Closing that gap is what our TQ Advantage workshop is built for, and I'll say more about it at the end. First, the sports science. THE RESEARCH · THE TOO-MUCH-TALENT EFFECT In 2014, researchers from INSEAD, Columbia and VU University Amsterdam published a study in Psychological Science that tested something most hiring committees treat as settled: does adding top talent always make a team better? Before they ran the numbers, they asked ordinary people to predict the answer. Most said yes. More stars, more wins, no ceiling. Then the researchers checked. They looked at three sports: two World Cup qualifying cycles in soccer (2010 and 2014), ten NBA seasons (2002 to 2012), and ten Major League Baseball seasons over the same stretch. In baseball, more talent kept paying off. Each added star moved the win column. In soccer and basketball, talent helped up to a point. Past that point the gains flattened, and at the very top the curve bent down. The most star-heavy teams won less than their talent predicted. The NBA data showed where the wins leaked out. The most star-heavy teams coordinated worse: fewer assists, lower shooting percentages, fewer defensive rebounds. Anyone who has guarded a ball hog in a rec-league game knew this already. Now there's a regression line. The deciding variable was interdependence. A baseball hitter stands alone at the plate. (Baseball is a team sport roughly the way a spelling bee is.) A point guard needs four other people for the play to work. When winning depends on coordination, stacking individual brilliance without building the coordination stops paying. One caveat, because a sharp board member will ask: the downturn at the very top comes from a fitted curve, and the coordination link is a correlation. Treat it as a strong signal about where to look. Most of us hire leaders as if we're building a baseball roster. Then we ask them to play basketball. THE FRAMEWORK · SORT, PASS, POSITION Three moves. You can teach all of them to your team in sixty seconds. Sort the game you're actually playing. Some work really is baseball. A great grant writer or recruiter can win alone at the plate, so let them. The leadership team plays a different sport. The budget, the master schedule, enrollment, the board and the bargaining table all run through each other. When one leader guards her lane, somebody else's work stalls. Build the passes on purpose. In the NBA data, the damage ran through coordination. Coordination is a skill, so a team can practice it. Most leadership teams have never written down a single hand-off: who gives what to whom, by when. They run on goodwill and email. Goodwill holds up fine until February. Email holds up fine until someone hits reply-all. Put people where they play best. I was recruited to play catcher in college and spent four years calling pitches and talking with my pitcher between nearly every one. Now and then my coach moved me to right field to rest my legs. I could play it. I was never brilliant out there. Plenty of leadership teams have catchers playing right field, and nobody has said so out loud. The TQ framework maps five types of thinkers: HEART, SOUL, STRENGTH, VOICE and MIND. Every team leans hard toward a few. Among the leaders we've assessed, HEART shows up 43% of the time and MIND just 7% . If nobody on your team naturally plays the MIND position, someone is covering it, and they're probably tired. WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE · ONE DROPPED PASS Here's the pattern I see most often. Finance flags a deficit in October. HR waits on enrollment projections before starting the staffing plan. Finance assumes teaching and learning is producing those projections. Teaching and learning assumes HR has them. Nobody dropped the ball on purpose. Everybody assumed someone else was holding it. Three excellent leaders, one dropped pass, and the reduction conversation slides to April, when every option is worse. Map that team's thinking and the reason usually takes about ten minutes to see. Nobody naturally plays the long-range, systems-checking position, so the superintendent has been covering it herself, at 10 p.m., for years. The fix is two moves. Write the six most important hand-offs as one-sentence agreements with names and dates. Then give the systems check to the leader whose profile leans that way, with permission to slow a decision down when the numbers don't connect. Same people. Different sport. TQ IMPLICATION → If most of your priorities need two or more leaders moving together, your development plans can't all be batting practice. THE DRILL · 20 MINUTES AT YOUR NEXT MEETING Sort the work (5 minutes). List your team's top five priorities for the year. Mark each one B for baseball, if one person can win it alone, or H for hoops, if it takes two or more of you moving together. Count the H's. If most are H's and every development plan on your team is individual, you've found the gap. Find the passes (5 minutes). For each H, write the hand-off as one sentence: who gives what to whom, by when. "Finance gets the enrollment projection to HR by February 1 so staffing can start." Name your positions (5 minutes). Go around the table once. Each leader answers: "Where on this team do I play catcher? Where am I playing right field?" No rebuttals on the first lap. Fix one pass (5 minutes). Pick the hand-off that dropped most often this fall. Agree on one change and one owner. Open your next meeting by checking it. "We don't have time for this." Count the decisions this fall that came back to the table a second time because someone wasn't looped in. Multiply by the people in the room and the minutes each one took. You're already paying for the drill, in rework. "My people are too senior for this." So were the NBA's most stacked rosters, and coordination was still where they lost games. Twenty minutes usually surfaces one hand-off everyone quietly knew was broken. THE MATURITY SHIFT Immature leaders think: "We need to hire another star." Mature leaders think: "We need the stars we have to pass." Immature leaders think: "Everyone on my team is excellent, so my team is excellent." Mature leaders think: "Everyone on my team is excellent. Now we build the team." Immature leaders think: "Put the best person on the biggest problem." Mature leaders think: "Put the right position on the problem, and protect the hand-offs around it." YOUR TURN Finish this sentence in the comments: "The pass that keeps dropping on our team is ______." One line is plenty. Then read a few of the others. You'll see fast that you're not the only one, which is either comforting or alarming, depending on your board. THE NEXT MOVE Quick gut check. If you ran the drill tomorrow, how many of your top five priorities would come back marked H? And how many of those have a hand-off anyone has written down? If the honest answers are "most" and "none," you're in good company. It's the most common pattern in our data. It's also the one that costs the most in a hard season, because dropped passes show up right when the margin for error disappears: the budget gap, the bargaining year, the board meeting where three of your leaders describe three versions of the same plan. If the drill surfaced more dropped passes than you expected, let's talk it through. Thirty minutes, your team's real hand-offs, no slides and no pitch. Start with a 30-minute conversation: BOOK IT HERE When you're ready to go further, the TQ Advantage workshop puts your whole leadership team in one room for two and a half hours. Everyone completes the TQ assessment first. In the room you see your team's map side by side: who plays catcher, who's covering right field, and which positions nobody holds. You leave with the hand-off and decision protocols you'll use the next morning. Workshop details: higherperformancegroup.com/team-intelligence Know a colleague whose leadership team is in a hard season? Send this their way. And if you're new here, hit subscribe so next week's issue finds you. SOURCES & FURTHER READING Swaab, R. I., Schaerer, M., Anicich, E. M., Ronay, R., & Galinsky, A. D. (2014). The too-much-talent effect: Team interdependence determines when more talent is too much or not enough. Psychological Science, 25(8), 1581–1591. Read the study Plain-language summary: Association for Psychological Science The book: The TQ Advantage by Dr. Joe Hill Behind the 60% figure: HPG research on nearly 1,000 TQ assessments
By HPG Info • October 28, 2026
For college presidents, superintendents, and their leadership teams: a 25-minute exercise for your next meeting. Open your website and read the first five sentences out loud. Count how many start with “we” or “our.” Then count how many start with a student’s problem. Write both numbers down. We’ll come back to them. The committee story Here’s how the “we” sentences win. They shout what they're proudest of: the founding year, the ranking, the new residence hall, the one-to-one devices. Every fact is true. Put together, they tell a 17-year-old on a campus tour, or a parent at kindergarten roundup, that the institution is the hero and they’re the audience. The hero and the guide Every story people remember has two roles. The hero has a problem and wants something. The guide shows up with empathy because they understand the problem and authority because they’ve helped others through it. Then the guide gives the hero a plan and steps out of the spotlight. In your story, the student is the hero, and so is the family standing beside them. Every adult is a guide: the president, the advisor who walks a nervous sophomore to her first job shadow, the bus driver who knows every kid’s name by October. Get those roles right, and your messaging and your service both start from the same place: the student’s problem. Why this matters now WICHE projects that the number of U.S. high school graduates will peak in 2025 and fall 13% by 2041. Fewer students and families will be choosing among more options, and they’ll trust the campus or district that sounds like it understands them. Students also tell us what they remember. In 2014, Gallup and Purdue surveyed more than 30,000 college graduates. For those who had a professor who cared about them as a person, one who made them excited to learn, and a mentor who encouraged their dreams, their odds of being engaged at work more than doubled. Only 14% had all three. What students remember is being known. That’s guide work, and it starts long before college. Three guide moves Start with their problem. Lead with the questions families are really asking: Will I belong? Will someone know my name? Can we afford this? Is my kid safe here? In service, start the first advising meeting or parent-teacher conference with “What’s hardest for you right now?” Show empathy, then authority. Say you understand, then prove you’ve helped someone like them. One real student story, told with permission, does more than a page of rankings. Give a plan and a picture of success. Three clear steps, and what life looks like a year from now. Every student should be able to name their next step and the adult who has their back. One guardrail: say only what’s true in every building. When Clinton-Massie Local Schools in Ohio had to make cuts after a failed levy, the Superintendent David Moss wrote to families, “The unfortunate reality is that this is a reduction in service.” Families follow a guide who tells them the truth. Take this into your next leadership team meeting (25 minutes) The card (5 minutes). Give everyone an index card with one question: “A student or family asks why they should choose us. What do you tell them?” Sixty seconds, no talking. The sort (5 minutes). Read the cards out loud. Make two piles: cards that start with the student, and cards that start with us. The conversation (10 minutes). Which card would a student or parent actually remember? Where do our website, our tours and our first weeks put us in the spotlight? What do we promise that we can’t yet deliver everywhere? Who on our team already acts like a guide, and what could the rest of us copy? The commitment (5 minutes). Pick one message (a homepage line, a tour script or a welcome letter) and one service moment (orientation, the first week or the first conference). Rewrite both before your next meeting, and assign an owner to each. Then run the five-sentence test again and see if your numbers moved. Where this goes next If your cards came back with eight different answers, you’ve found your team’s real work. The average team performs at less than 60% of its potential (MIT and HPG research), and most of that gap lives in how talented leaders think, decide, and act together. The Team Accelerator is a monthly development experience built to close that gap for a president’s or superintendent’s whole leadership team. It starts where your index cards left off, with the Team Intelligence (TQ) Assessment , so your team can see how it works today. From there: The TQ Advantage Workshop gives your leaders one shared language. Each leader gets a Natural Leadership Profile and a 1:1 with me. Three workshops build Trust, Empowerment, and Collaboration , in the order they grow. Dr. Amy Diaz, EdD , president of GateWay Community College , put it this way: “GateWay’s breakthrough came from intentional work on team cohesion.” If the card exercise showed you a gap, let’s talk about it. Book 30 minutes with me. Know someone who runs a leadership team meeting? Forward this to them. Turn high-performing leaders into a HIGHER-PERFORMING TEAM Follow DR. JOE HILL and Higher Performance Group
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