5 (Faulty) Assumptions That Will Further Shrink Your Enrollment in the Year Ahead

March 7, 2023

Is the world changing?


Nope. It has changed. 


Leading a campus (or a district of campuses) in the new world of work has been more than complex. 


What enhances the struggle is when your assumptions about the future are false. 


Recently, Ms. Becky (my wife) and I embarked on a winter hike that we planned would take a few hours in our home state of Minnesota. The snow and ice on the trail were a bit more than planned, causing us to cancel our dinner plans with friends that evening. 

puzzle pieces

The hike was beautiful, but our delay was discouraging. 


Isn’t it better to know it will be difficult and find it a bit easier than to think things will be easy and find them super challenging?


What’s true in life is especially true in leadership.


Over the past 18 months, I have encountered more than a few delusional leaders working from conventional strategies for bolstering campus enrollment that, in all likelihood, won’t pan out.


Your performance will grow if you get your assumptions dialed in and work your plan with focus. 


Here are the five (faulty) assumptions that will further shrink your enrollment in the year ahead.


1. What worked before is going to work again.


A crisis is both a revealer and an accelerator.


The crisis of the last few years has accomplished two things across every campus. It’s revealed what’s working and what isn’t. And it’s sped up the consequences of both.


While a few systems have seen rapid growth during the crisis, most are recovering. Just last week, I found myself in the middle of an executive leadership conversation hinging on the question, “should we host a town hall meeting to say that we are up in enrollment (over last year) when in reality, we are still 18% down since 2020.”


On the one hand, it is
right to celebrate gains to foster hope, but on the other hand, campus leaders must be clear in “right-sizing” their budgets without confusing their people. 


How can you be up in enrollment and cutting programs right?


Because crisis both reveals and accelerates, perhaps you’re seeing today what your campus would have looked like in 2030 without a healthy course correction. 


As sobering as that might be, perhaps it’s a gift.


If the old
 approach allowed for Lucky Growth (we built it, and they will come), the accelerated decline could be a gift to help you see that a new Leading Growth approach is needed.


If the old approach isn’t replicating growth, trying harder in that space won’t bring different results, no matter how hard you grind.


And if the old model wasn’t working before, it will probably not work again, no matter how sincere you are, how loudly you command your people, or how desperate you feel.


The time has finally come for campus leaders to double down on the mission and experiment with the methods.


2. The building will be the center of education.


At the heart of every declining system is the over-reliance on buildings as the focal point of all learning engagement.


What if the future of transforming lives has left the building? 


By this, I don’t mean that campus sites across the country should abandon gathering. The future of education is (and will always be) in
community. 


Decentralized, distributed, and small group is the future of learning in the new world. 


Somehow, education fell into the assumption that for quality engagement to occur, it was fixed within the construct of a campus (with a mascot), four walls to a classroom, and two covers to a book. 


And that is observed by cramming humans into auditoriums, rows, and other settings where dialogue isn’t really encouraged.


You may still be shocked and frustrated by the surprisingly low return-to-campus attendance trends this semester.


What if the people you’re looking for haven’t left? What if they’ve just left your building? 

 

Plug your nose because this truth stinks, for sure. Many of your learners are gone for good. 


No questions. No arguing. 


Those missing may not be leaving the educational pipeline altogether. They may not even be leaving your system.


They’re just not returning to YOUR building, and perhaps they won’t even after the pandemic is a distant memory.


I’m not saying this is good (I don’t like it either). I am saying it’s real. 


Leaders who cooperate with reality do far better than those who fall victim (and complain about it).


Here’s what’s critical. Your mission isn’t dead. 

  • Your commitment to academic excellence and student success.
  • Your dedication to equity and inclusion.
  • Your partnership with families and the community.
  • Your emphasis on professional development and ongoing learning.
  • Your commitment to accountability and transparency.


But your methods might be on life support.


What if the BUILDING as a method is getting in the way of thriving in delivering your mission?



At the end of 2023, what would it feel like to be ahead again?


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Without a new focus and approach, it's easy to continue to:

➜ Sacrifice self and family on the altar of work.

➜ Overcommit and underdeliver.

➜ Be busy but no longer brilliant.

➜ Juggle more priorities than what we can complete.


Worst of all, other people — other tasks, jobs, and projects — will continue to hijack your life.


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3. You don’t need to take virtual learning that seriously.


The rallying cry – “EVERYONE GET BACK TO THE BUILDING” that so many college presidents and district superintendents have shouted over the last year still surprises me.


Add to that the consistent and critical dismissal of virtual learning as a quality option for mission delivery. I’m not talking about your website, live stream, and social media upgrades. I’m referring to the notion that your online presence is likely underfunded and relegated to the middle of someone’s job description.


Too many campus sites have a Web1 presence as Web2 peaks, and Web3 emerges, yet still wonder why they can’t grow enrollment.


For a primer on Web3 and the “metaverse” in education, I highly recommend reading
What Does Web3 in Education mean for the future of teaching and learning. 


Most campuses spend 90-98% of their learning budget on in-person education in an era where fewer people attend in-person school than ever.


Please hear me out. Each campus MUST do in-person learning exceptionally well.


But you are losing significant traction when your system spends a tiny fraction of its time and resources serving and prospecting your current and future learners in the virtual economy. 


The good news is that sometimes online engagement will lead to in-person. 


Sometimes it doesn’t.


The point is that everyone you want to reach IS online. If you can’t engage people in cyberspace, you miss them and all the opportunity that comes with it.


4. The future will be linear.


There was a season in leadership from the 1980s through the mid-2010s where leadership was more straightforward because progress (in both technology and society) was linear.


There were a few recessions and setbacks along the way, but it was usually only a matter of time until things started moving forward again in a predictable fashion. While that wasn’t true in every organization, it was culturally true across education.


The mid-2010s ushered in the first waves of instability (division, deeper partisanship, rage, and the severe questioning of institutions), all serving as a massive wave disrupting the patterns we knew and had come to trust. 


The pandemic and ensuing global crisis accelerated the destabilization even further.


Leaders of geopolitical thought predict that the future will be unpredictable (how’s that for a prediction?). 


The future will be less linear, unstable, and complex than anything ANYONE has led before. 


This is unchartered territory. Thinking the future will be linear and predictable only sets you and your team up for more heartbreak and anger.


You know the stoic line, “the secret to happiness is low expectations?”


Having lower expectations for predictability and embracing the probability of instability will better prepare you to lead your team and system successfully. 


Agile leaders and teams thrive in periods of rapid change, and if you’re ready for it, you can be one of those leaders and one of those systems.


For more on this, you may want to take another look at my post,
4 Big Signs to Guarantee your Performance Won’t Turn Around.


5.
Running hard like your hair is on fire is the only way to fix this.


Many leaders have been running so hard for so long, grinding under the false hope that the next quarter/new semester/new year will bring new hope.


Has it?


This leaves you with the question, “how long can I run at this pace?”


For most leaders, the meter expired months or years ago. And that leaves you exhausted, looking ahead at an impossible future.


Exhaustion is the gateway to terrible decision-making, moral failure, burnout, ineffectiveness, and chronic underperformance. 


Why? 


Running at an unsustainable pace will leave you too tired to think about innovation and without the energy to dare, risk, or execute.


This has to be the season for you to focus—to find a sustainable pace.


It’s no shock that one of the first casualties of working too hard is a loss of creativity. As 
Adam Grant has pointed out, great ideas take time and margin to develop and often involve experimentation and failure.


And most importantly, creativity is linked to slowing down and creating space for the creative process to ferment and grow (Adam’s 
2016 TED talk would be good therapy right now, by the way).


If finding a sustainable pace has been elusive for you (as it has for most leaders), I’d love to help you find one.
Book a Free Virtual Coffee Here for a pep talk and a free consultation for effectively managing your meeting triage.


Running hard indefinitely isn’t the way to fix a problem—it’s actually the way to break you.




Identify and Break Through Your Growth Barriers.


Enroll Your Team in the Lead Team Institute 


  • What used to work isn’t working anymore. What do I do next? 
  • Why don’t we see results, even when we’re putting in the effort? 
  • What’s the right decision for the future when everything is so uncertain? 


The Institute
is for you if you are a Campus President, District Administrator, or a Public Sector Executive Director looking to Optimize Higher Team Performance. 


Escape the struggle today by joining a vibrant cohort where leaders share strategies and ideas to help each other Reclaim Momentum. 

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Ready to change the trajectory of your campus?


Set up a
Virtual Coffee HERE to learn more. 



More Blog Articles

By HPG Info • September 29, 2026
Before your next leadership team meeting, try something uncomfortable. For each of your direct reports, name one person on the team who would notice if they went quiet for two weeks. Someone who would actually pick up the phone. If a name didn’t come right away for at least one of them, you just found the reason your next resignation letter will blindside you. Eighteen months before it’s written. Most superintendents and presidents have never run this check. Nothing on your dashboard measures it. Evaluations measure output. Board reports measure outcomes. Strategic plans measure progress against a timeline. All of it is a lagging indicator, proof of something that already happened. One layer underneath every number you track sits a leading indicator. It measures whether anyone on your cabinet belongs to anyone else on your cabinet. The best explanation I’ve found for it started in evolutionary psychology. Stick with me. It gets specific fast. Schools Already Measure This. For Fifteen-Year-Olds. Gallup’s newest numbers, released this month, put Americans’ satisfaction with K-12 education at 32%. That’s the lowest in 27 years of tracking, and down 11 points in two years. It’s the mood your board members carry into every meeting. Here’s the part almost nobody covered. The OECD’s PISA 2025 results landed the same month, and buried inside them is a finding that cuts the other way. In 39 education systems, more students now say they belong at school than in 2022. In 48, fewer say they feel lonely. And bullying, the clearest belonging-killer PISA tracks, is associated with lower performance. The people studying fifteen-year-olds treat belonging as a performance indicator worth measuring at scale. Nobody has told the people running cabinets full of grown adults that the same logic applies to them. Now look at your own cabinet. You already know its shape. Two or three people you’d call close. One or two you can’t quite read. And at least one who’s technically “on the team” and functionally on an island: capable, compliant, and quiet in exactly the way that gets mistaken for fine. Here’s the part nobody puts in the org chart. The isolated one is usually your best individual performer. High competence reads as self-sufficiency. Self-sufficiency reads as “doesn’t need checking on.” Call it Competence Camouflage The better someone is at the job, the less anyone asks how they’re actually doing. (Which means the person most likely to be running on empty is the one least likely to get asked.) Robin Dunbar’s research on relationship layers has taken some hits on its exact numbers. The layered structure has held up better than the math: roughly 150 people you know, 50 you’d call friends, 15 you’d call close, and at the center, about 5 you actually rely on. Strip away the precise figures and one finding survives every challenge. The number of people we lean on for real support is small, and it does not grow with the number of people we know. (This is the question THE TEAM INSTITUTE was built to help cabinets answer: does everyone have someone? We map the actual relational structure of a cabinet the way good schools already map it for kids, then help build the one or two structural fixes that close what the map finds. More on that in a moment.) This is the part where I’m supposed to tell you to build more team culture. You’ve already tried the retreat, the trust falls, and the personality assessment binder gathering dust on someone’s shelf. What you have is a measurement gap. You’ve been tracking IQ and output, the two variables everyone measures, and skipping the one that decides whether either shows up. That’s PQ: how accurately your team reads each other, including who’s quietly running on empty. IQ × EQ × PQ = Team Intelligence . Leave PQ near zero and the whole product lands near zero, no matter how good the other two look on paper. The One-Name Test Call this the One-Name Test. It’s simple enough that you don’t need a consultant to run it, which is probably why almost nobody does. 1. Run the Census. Most leaders assume their cabinet is connected because meetings happen and nobody’s complained. Quiet tells you nothing about connection. So run the actual census: for each direct report, name one other person on the team who would notice if they went quiet for two weeks. A blank is your first isolated node, and possibly your next resignation letter, eighteen months early. (This is why “we didn’t see it coming” is almost never true. Someone saw it. Their role just didn’t make noticing count.) 2. The Bar Is One. Dunbar’s layers get quoted for the big number, 150. The number that moves retention on a cabinet is the smallest one. A cabinet member doesn’t need five people. They need one: someone who asks a second time when the answer is “fine.” A single reliable connection is something you can build on purpose, on a Tuesday, with no retreat budget. 3. Build Proximity on Purpose. Every school does this for kids. Advisories, teams, lunch tables. The whole architecture of a building is a belonging machine, whether anyone says so out loud. Cabinets stop doing it for adults the day everyone gets a title. Standing 1:1s that skip the status update. Co-owned projects that put two people in a room who wouldn’t otherwise talk. A rotating pair for the hard conversations, so the same two people aren’t always carrying the room. This is structural work, and structure survives a bad quarter. This is a composite, drawn from patterns across our 987 teams, not one specific leader. A university cabinet: six vice presidents, all strong, all overcommitted, all evaluated individually, all scoring well. The quietest one ran the tightest division in the institution and hadn’t taken a real day off in over a year. Nobody flagged it. Her numbers were fine. Then she resigned, gave the standard reasons, and left the president genuinely confused. Six months later, that cabinet ran its first belonging census. Two more vice presidents had no named connection. The president hadn’t known. Neither had they, until someone asked directly. The fix took three standing 1:1s and one reshuffled project pairing. In the cabinets where we see this pattern, a fix that small is usually enough. What changed? Someone finally noticed who had nobody, and acted before the resignation letter instead of after. Gallup has tracked this for years: only about two in ten U.S. employees strongly agree they have a best friend at work. The ones who do are more engaged and less likely to leave. Look around your cabinet table and count how many of your people could say yes with confidence. Monday Morning Here’s what to do Monday morning (assuming you’re not already mid-crisis, in which case bookmark this and do it Tuesday). Step 1: Run the Census (20 minutes). List every direct report. Next to each name, write one other person on the team who would notice if they went quiet. If you don’t know, leave it blank. Don’t guess to make the page look better. The blanks are the whole point. Step 2: Start With the Loneliest Node (30 minutes). Whoever has the most blanks gets the first fix. That’s usually your highest performer, which is exactly why they keep getting skipped. Build one standing connection this week: a pairing, a recurring 1:1, or a co-owned project with someone they don’t already talk to. Step 3: Ask the Discovery Question (10 minutes, next cabinet meeting). Skip “how’s everyone doing.” Ask: “Is there anyone on this team who’d notice if you disappeared for two weeks?” Let the silence sit. Someone will answer honestly. That’s your opening. “We don’t have time for relationship-building.” Do the math on the alternative. Replacing a cabinet-level leader is commonly estimated at 1.5 to 2 times salary once you count the search, the interim, and the months of lost momentum. On a $180,000 vice president, that’s $270,000 to $360,000. The census takes twenty minutes. That’s less time than the last meeting that could have been an email. “My team is professionals, not middle schoolers who need a buddy system.” Professionals are exactly who this is for. The buddy system works on ten-year-olds because it’s honest about what humans need. Adults just got better at hiding when it’s missing, which is why it takes a census to find it instead of a glance across the cafeteria. The Maturity Shift Immature leaders think: “My cabinet has a performance problem, so we need better goals and clearer accountability.” Mature leaders think: “My cabinet might have a belonging problem wearing a performance costume, and accountability can’t catch what connection was supposed to.” Immature leaders treat isolation as a personality trait: some people are just private, just independent, just built that way. Mature leaders treat it as a structural gap, the same one they’d flag for a kid with no lunch table. It’s the same gap in a suit. Dunbar made 150 famous. The number that matters on your cabinet is one. Building a single connection for one person may be the highest-leverage thing you do this month, because if you don’t design it on purpose, you’ll find out by accident, usually in an exit interview. Your turn: pull up your cabinet roster right now. Whose name can’t you pair with anyone? Bonus points if you knew before you finished reading and just hadn’t said it out loud. If that name came to you fast, you already have what you need to start. What you probably don’t have is a structured way to find the ones you’re missing before one of them hands you a resignation letter. That’s the gap THE TEAM INSTITUTE closes. We map who’s connected and who isn’t across your whole cabinet, grounded in the TQ research behind IQ × EQ × PQ across 987 leadership teams. Cabinets that closed gaps like this saw performance improve roughly 3x, engagement rise 29%, and outcomes improve 27%, with no increase in burnout. If you already suspect someone on your team has nobody, would it help to know for certain, and to find the ones you’ve missed? Start here: THE TEAM INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT Whether or not this week is the right one for that, help another leader catch this before it costs them someone. Repost this with the one step you’re taking this week. Tag a fellow superintendent or president who needs to run this census. Or drop a comment with where your belonging plan stands.  Follow DR. JOE HILL and Higher Performance Group .
By HPG Info • September 22, 2026
The most persuasive person in your cabinet meeting might be the reason nothing ever gets decided. Enrollment in a long-time program has been sliding for three straight years. The data says cut it. The community loves it. The board wants a recommendation by spring. You already know the safe move. Commission another study. Form a committee. Push the real call into next year's budget cycle, when maybe the numbers look different, or maybe you've retired, or maybe someone else has to say the hard thing instead of you. That's not patience. That's a decision, made by default, dressed up as diligence. Here's the part nobody says in the retreat: the calls you're avoiding are already being made. By the calendar, by attrition, by whichever board member gets impatient first. You're just not the one making them anymore, and every month that passes makes that arrangement feel more normal. This week: the sociologist who explained exactly what's happening in that gap a hundred years before anyone had a cabinet meeting about it, and the four ways leaders relate to a decision they already know the answer to. THE DIAGNOSIS Let's talk about this like adults who've sat through a strategic planning retreat that produced a beautiful deck and changed absolutely nothing. You know the version where the program-cut recommendation gets "tabled for further study" for the third year in a row. You know the version where a board member asks a pointed question in a public meeting, and you give the answer that keeps the peace instead of the one you actually believe. You know the version where you rehearse a hard conversation in the car, word for word, and walk in and have a different, softer one instead. Here's the honest question underneath all three: when was the last time the answer you gave out loud was the same one you already knew was true? Sociologist George Herbert Mead named the mechanism underneath that gap. He argued every person operates from two parts of the self: the "me" and the "I." The "me" is everything you've absorbed from twenty years of board meetings, community forums, and performance reviews. It's the internalized voice of everyone who's ever had an opinion about how you should lead. The "me" is genuinely useful. It's how you read a room, anticipate an objection before it's spoken, and avoid torching a relationship you'll need again next month. The "I" is the actual response you generate the moment a real decision has to be made. Not the poll-tested version. The one that's yours. This is the part where I'm supposed to tell you to "trust your gut." You already knew that. The real problem is you've been trying to solve a Perceptual Intelligence problem with willpower, and willpower doesn't scale past the first hard meeting. TQ math doesn't forgive that substitution either. TQ = IQ × EQ × PQ . A leader who can't read whether the room can survive a real decision is multiplying by a guess, no matter how smart the room is. (This is the exact gap THE TEAM INSTITUTE was built to close: the collective trust and shared language that let a leader spend the "me" on a real decision without the whole team reading it as instability. More on that in a moment.) THE BUILDER MATRIX, APPLIED TO THE CALL YOU'RE AVOIDING Call it the Builder Matrix. It won't make the decision any easier. It'll just tell you, precisely, why you're the one still holding it. Mead argued you need both the "me" and the "I." Too much "me" and you become, in his words, "hardly more than a conventional individual": agreeable, predictable, safe, forgettable. Too little grounding in the "me" and the "I" has no credibility, no read on the room, nothing to spend. Across our work with 987 leadership teams , we've mapped this exact tension onto four patterns, plotted on two dimensions: how much ambition a leader brings to a decision, and how much they're willing to risk the "me" to make it. Coasters run entirely on the "me." They know precisely what the community expects and deliver exactly that and nothing more. No friction, no risk, no memory of them once they're gone. (This is the leader whose entire tenure could be replaced by a very good committee.) Climbers manage the "me" as a performance. Every decision gets filtered through how it will look before anyone asks whether it's right. The "I" never actually shows up, only the appearance of decisiveness. (You can spot a Climber by how many times "optics" comes up in a cabinet meeting that's supposedly about students.) Dreamers have plenty of "I." Bold ideas, real vision, sharp instincts. But the ideas stay in the retreat notebook, because acting on them risks the "me" they've spent years building. High idealism, low follow-through, and a strategic plan full of language nobody in the building has actually seen put into practice. Builders spend years building the "me": real relationships with the board, real credibility with staff, real trust in the community. Then, when the moment calls for it, they spend it. They make the call, explain it with the actual data, absorb the first wave of backlash, and eighteen months later they're still standing and still trusted, because the decision was theirs and not a committee's. This is a composite, drawn from patterns across our 987 teams, not one specific leader. A university president spent three budget cycles watching a beloved forty-student program lose enrollment while it quietly drained capacity from three growing programs down the hall. Two committees. One consultant study. Zero decisions. In year four, she did something different. She spent a Tuesday afternoon with the program's faculty, in person, before the board meeting, not after. She walked them through the real numbers, said plainly that the program would be phased out over two years with a teach-out plan for every enrolled student, and told them she'd take the criticism at the public meeting so they wouldn't have to. She did. It was ugly for six weeks. Then it wasn't. The three growing programs absorbed the freed capacity, two of the phased-out program's faculty moved into roles they'd actually wanted for years, and her board chair told her privately that the meeting was the first time in his four years on the board he'd watched her actually lead instead of manage. The difference wasn't the data. She'd had the same data for three years. The difference was she finally spent the "me" she'd built instead of protecting it. Three years of committees and consultant studies got her nowhere. One Tuesday afternoon, spent differently, got her the outcome she'd wanted the whole time. Now, if you're thinking, "I already know which decision this is for me, I just don't know how to make the call without torching three years of trust," that's the actual gap. Knowing the right answer was never the hard part. Spending the trust to act on it is. Here's where to start. THE APPLICATION Here's what to do Monday morning (assuming you're not already in crisis mode, in which case, bookmark this and do it Tuesday): Step 1: Name the decision you're managing instead of making (10 minutes). Write down the actual call, in one sentence, the way you'd say it to your board chair over coffee — something closer to "we're cutting this program, and I've known it for two years" than "we're evaluating program viability." If you can't write that sentence, you haven't diagnosed the decision. You've diagnosed your discomfort with it. Step 2: Set your own deadline before the board sets one for you (5 minutes). Pick the date you'll announce the call, and tell one trusted person on your cabinet that date out loud. A decision with a date attached is a decision. A decision that's "still being studied" is a delay with better branding. Step 3: Draft the reversal statement before you decide, not after (15 minutes). Write the two or three sentences you'd say if new data proved you wrong six months from now. If you can imagine saying that sentence out loud and surviving it, you've already confirmed the "me" you've built can absorb the risk. That's the actual test, and almost no one runs it before they decide. "We don't have time for this level of process on every decision." You're right, and this isn't for every decision. It's for the one you've been managing for over a year instead of making. That one has already cost you more hours in committees and consultant studies than these three steps combined ever will. "My board will see this as me going rogue." Your board is currently watching you not decide, which they've already noticed and are already discounting. A leader who makes a clear, well-explained call earns more trust than one who keeps extending the study, even from board members who disagree with the call itself. Disagreement they can work with. A leader who won't commit is the thing that actually erodes a board's confidence over time, slowly enough that most leaders never connect the two. THE MATURITY SHIFT Immature leaders think: "I need everyone on board before I decide." Mature leaders think: "I need enough trust in the bank that I can decide before everyone's on board." Immature leaders protect the "me" indefinitely, mistaking the protection itself for leadership. Mature leaders spend it on purpose, when it's actually needed, then go back to building it again. Here's the part that should sting a little: every month you manage instead of make, you're not staying neutral. You're teaching your cabinet what actually happens here when a hard call arrives. Some of them are already learning that the answer is: nothing, for a while, and then someone else's problem. Your turn: name one decision on your desk right now that you're managing instead of making. What, specifically, are you waiting for that isn't actually going to arrive? Drop it in the comments, or keep it to yourself and just answer it honestly. Either way, that decision is your "I," waiting for permission you don't need. This is what THE TEAM INSTITUTE exists to build: a cabinet with enough shared Perceptual Intelligence that when you spend the trust, the room reads it as leadership instead of instability. Across our research, cabinets that built this shared architecture saw performance improve roughly 3x and outcomes improve 27%, largely because the hard calls stopped requiring one person to carry them alone.  If there were a way to make the call you're avoiding without spending the next year rebuilding what it costs you, would that be worth twenty minutes this week? Start here: higherperformancegroup.com/team-intelligence-assessment Whether or not this week is right for that, help another leader see the decision they're sitting on. Repost this with the call you finally made, or the one you're still avoiding. Tag a leader who's been managing something for a year and already knows the answer. Or drop your own version in the comments — someone else's Tuesday gets easier because you did. Follow DR. JOE HILL and Higher Performance Group for weekly Team Intelligence insights. Higher Performance Group | THE TEAM INSTITUTE
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