5 (Faulty) Assumptions That Will Further Shrink Your Enrollment in the Year Ahead

March 7, 2023

Is the world changing?


Nope. It has changed. 


Leading a campus (or a district of campuses) in the new world of work has been more than complex. 


What enhances the struggle is when your assumptions about the future are false. 


Recently, Ms. Becky (my wife) and I embarked on a winter hike that we planned would take a few hours in our home state of Minnesota. The snow and ice on the trail were a bit more than planned, causing us to cancel our dinner plans with friends that evening. 

puzzle pieces

The hike was beautiful, but our delay was discouraging. 


Isn’t it better to know it will be difficult and find it a bit easier than to think things will be easy and find them super challenging?


What’s true in life is especially true in leadership.


Over the past 18 months, I have encountered more than a few delusional leaders working from conventional strategies for bolstering campus enrollment that, in all likelihood, won’t pan out.


Your performance will grow if you get your assumptions dialed in and work your plan with focus. 


Here are the five (faulty) assumptions that will further shrink your enrollment in the year ahead.


1. What worked before is going to work again.


A crisis is both a revealer and an accelerator.


The crisis of the last few years has accomplished two things across every campus. It’s revealed what’s working and what isn’t. And it’s sped up the consequences of both.


While a few systems have seen rapid growth during the crisis, most are recovering. Just last week, I found myself in the middle of an executive leadership conversation hinging on the question, “should we host a town hall meeting to say that we are up in enrollment (over last year) when in reality, we are still 18% down since 2020.”


On the one hand, it is
right to celebrate gains to foster hope, but on the other hand, campus leaders must be clear in “right-sizing” their budgets without confusing their people. 


How can you be up in enrollment and cutting programs right?


Because crisis both reveals and accelerates, perhaps you’re seeing today what your campus would have looked like in 2030 without a healthy course correction. 


As sobering as that might be, perhaps it’s a gift.


If the old
 approach allowed for Lucky Growth (we built it, and they will come), the accelerated decline could be a gift to help you see that a new Leading Growth approach is needed.


If the old approach isn’t replicating growth, trying harder in that space won’t bring different results, no matter how hard you grind.


And if the old model wasn’t working before, it will probably not work again, no matter how sincere you are, how loudly you command your people, or how desperate you feel.


The time has finally come for campus leaders to double down on the mission and experiment with the methods.


2. The building will be the center of education.


At the heart of every declining system is the over-reliance on buildings as the focal point of all learning engagement.


What if the future of transforming lives has left the building? 


By this, I don’t mean that campus sites across the country should abandon gathering. The future of education is (and will always be) in
community. 


Decentralized, distributed, and small group is the future of learning in the new world. 


Somehow, education fell into the assumption that for quality engagement to occur, it was fixed within the construct of a campus (with a mascot), four walls to a classroom, and two covers to a book. 


And that is observed by cramming humans into auditoriums, rows, and other settings where dialogue isn’t really encouraged.


You may still be shocked and frustrated by the surprisingly low return-to-campus attendance trends this semester.


What if the people you’re looking for haven’t left? What if they’ve just left your building? 

 

Plug your nose because this truth stinks, for sure. Many of your learners are gone for good. 


No questions. No arguing. 


Those missing may not be leaving the educational pipeline altogether. They may not even be leaving your system.


They’re just not returning to YOUR building, and perhaps they won’t even after the pandemic is a distant memory.


I’m not saying this is good (I don’t like it either). I am saying it’s real. 


Leaders who cooperate with reality do far better than those who fall victim (and complain about it).


Here’s what’s critical. Your mission isn’t dead. 

  • Your commitment to academic excellence and student success.
  • Your dedication to equity and inclusion.
  • Your partnership with families and the community.
  • Your emphasis on professional development and ongoing learning.
  • Your commitment to accountability and transparency.


But your methods might be on life support.


What if the BUILDING as a method is getting in the way of thriving in delivering your mission?



At the end of 2023, what would it feel like to be ahead again?


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Without a new focus and approach, it's easy to continue to:

➜ Sacrifice self and family on the altar of work.

➜ Overcommit and underdeliver.

➜ Be busy but no longer brilliant.

➜ Juggle more priorities than what we can complete.


Worst of all, other people — other tasks, jobs, and projects — will continue to hijack your life.


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3. You don’t need to take virtual learning that seriously.


The rallying cry – “EVERYONE GET BACK TO THE BUILDING” that so many college presidents and district superintendents have shouted over the last year still surprises me.


Add to that the consistent and critical dismissal of virtual learning as a quality option for mission delivery. I’m not talking about your website, live stream, and social media upgrades. I’m referring to the notion that your online presence is likely underfunded and relegated to the middle of someone’s job description.


Too many campus sites have a Web1 presence as Web2 peaks, and Web3 emerges, yet still wonder why they can’t grow enrollment.


For a primer on Web3 and the “metaverse” in education, I highly recommend reading
What Does Web3 in Education mean for the future of teaching and learning. 


Most campuses spend 90-98% of their learning budget on in-person education in an era where fewer people attend in-person school than ever.


Please hear me out. Each campus MUST do in-person learning exceptionally well.


But you are losing significant traction when your system spends a tiny fraction of its time and resources serving and prospecting your current and future learners in the virtual economy. 


The good news is that sometimes online engagement will lead to in-person. 


Sometimes it doesn’t.


The point is that everyone you want to reach IS online. If you can’t engage people in cyberspace, you miss them and all the opportunity that comes with it.


4. The future will be linear.


There was a season in leadership from the 1980s through the mid-2010s where leadership was more straightforward because progress (in both technology and society) was linear.


There were a few recessions and setbacks along the way, but it was usually only a matter of time until things started moving forward again in a predictable fashion. While that wasn’t true in every organization, it was culturally true across education.


The mid-2010s ushered in the first waves of instability (division, deeper partisanship, rage, and the severe questioning of institutions), all serving as a massive wave disrupting the patterns we knew and had come to trust. 


The pandemic and ensuing global crisis accelerated the destabilization even further.


Leaders of geopolitical thought predict that the future will be unpredictable (how’s that for a prediction?). 


The future will be less linear, unstable, and complex than anything ANYONE has led before. 


This is unchartered territory. Thinking the future will be linear and predictable only sets you and your team up for more heartbreak and anger.


You know the stoic line, “the secret to happiness is low expectations?”


Having lower expectations for predictability and embracing the probability of instability will better prepare you to lead your team and system successfully. 


Agile leaders and teams thrive in periods of rapid change, and if you’re ready for it, you can be one of those leaders and one of those systems.


For more on this, you may want to take another look at my post,
4 Big Signs to Guarantee your Performance Won’t Turn Around.


5.
Running hard like your hair is on fire is the only way to fix this.


Many leaders have been running so hard for so long, grinding under the false hope that the next quarter/new semester/new year will bring new hope.


Has it?


This leaves you with the question, “how long can I run at this pace?”


For most leaders, the meter expired months or years ago. And that leaves you exhausted, looking ahead at an impossible future.


Exhaustion is the gateway to terrible decision-making, moral failure, burnout, ineffectiveness, and chronic underperformance. 


Why? 


Running at an unsustainable pace will leave you too tired to think about innovation and without the energy to dare, risk, or execute.


This has to be the season for you to focus—to find a sustainable pace.


It’s no shock that one of the first casualties of working too hard is a loss of creativity. As 
Adam Grant has pointed out, great ideas take time and margin to develop and often involve experimentation and failure.


And most importantly, creativity is linked to slowing down and creating space for the creative process to ferment and grow (Adam’s 
2016 TED talk would be good therapy right now, by the way).


If finding a sustainable pace has been elusive for you (as it has for most leaders), I’d love to help you find one.
Book a Free Virtual Coffee Here for a pep talk and a free consultation for effectively managing your meeting triage.


Running hard indefinitely isn’t the way to fix a problem—it’s actually the way to break you.




Identify and Break Through Your Growth Barriers.


Enroll Your Team in the Lead Team Institute 


  • What used to work isn’t working anymore. What do I do next? 
  • Why don’t we see results, even when we’re putting in the effort? 
  • What’s the right decision for the future when everything is so uncertain? 


The Institute
is for you if you are a Campus President, District Administrator, or a Public Sector Executive Director looking to Optimize Higher Team Performance. 


Escape the struggle today by joining a vibrant cohort where leaders share strategies and ideas to help each other Reclaim Momentum. 

  • Live Team Kickoff – Fall of 2023
  • 10 Virtual Workshops
  • Live Team Capstone – Spring of 2024
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Ready to change the trajectory of your campus?


Set up a
Virtual Coffee HERE to learn more. 



More Blog Articles

By HPG Info August 3, 2026
K-12 or higher ed — same grave, same fight, and where we actually stand on it. Every August, someone in a lanyard stands in front of a room full of exhausted adults — a superintendent at convocation, a provost at the fall address — and says some version of “this is the year everything changes.” Everyone claps. Nobody believes it. By October, both rooms are right back where they started, for the exact same structural reason, just wearing different institutional colors. You know the K-12 version of the grave: the PD-day initiative that had its own hashtag in August and hasn't been mentioned since the first snow day. You know the higher-ed version: the strategic plan the board approved 7-0, the one nobody on the provost's council could name a completed goal from by homecoming. Same grave. Different landscaping. Here's what should actually keep you pacing in your office more than enrollment or the sub shortage. Gallup's 2023 workforce data puts global disengagement at 62% . MIT's Human Dynamics Lab found fragmented teams burn up to 60% of their energy on coordination — meetings about meetings, not the work. Harvard economist Sendhil Mullainathan's research on scarcity found that operating under constant shortage costs the brain the functional equivalent of 13 IQ points . Thirteen. That's the gap between your sharpest VP and someone who forgot the agenda. One more, because it should make you genuinely angry: training-transfer research going back three decades puts the share of professional learning that ever makes it into practice at under 10% . Every PD day. Every retreat. Every conference you sent three people to in July. You're not underfunding development. You're funding an extremely expensive form of forgetting. None of this is a motivation problem. Your people aren't lazy or allergic to change. They're operating inside a system quietly taxing them on seven fronts before they've poured their first cup of coffee in the building. And if it doesn't get named this year, it isn't just this year that pays for it. It's whoever inherits your seat. It's the kid in the back row, the freshman three weeks into a dorm, the faculty member who stopped raising a hand two years ago and nobody noticed. The cost has names. So here's where we stand, plainly, because none of this works if you don't know it. WE ARE FOR HEALTHY TEAMS AND HIGHLY RELIABLE SYSTEMS. That's the HPG brand, in five words. WE ARE AGAINST THE SYSTEMS THAT ACCELERATE BURNOUT — the ones that train your best people to mistake exhaustion for commitment, reward the loudest voice over the best idea, and quietly bill the people who care most for continuing to care. Not the board. Not the budget. THE SYSTEM itself. We didn't build this to run another workshop. We built it to fight for both ends of that equation — the leader carrying it, and the kid, the freshman, the faculty member on the other side who never got a vote in how well the system was built. Pick a side. We already have. Here's what FOR actually looks like, not hypothetically — we've watched it happen close to a thousand times. The Tuesday cabinet meeting ends on time. The VP who started emailing ideas instead of saying them out loud starts saying them out loud again. The plan from August is still alive in October — audible, not filed. That's not a culture initiative. That's a highly reliable system, doing what it's supposed to do. It starts with knowing, precisely, which of seven forces is your leak. Not guessing. Not a hallway read. Next week, you find out which one is yours. I'm opening The Burnout Force Check — three minutes, seven forces, your own honest number. It isn't live yet. It opens next week, right here.  Message me personally, and I'll make sure you're first through the door — doesn't matter which lanyard you're wearing. Follow DR. JOE HILL and Higher Performance Group
By HPG Info July 27, 2026
Why the seven forces driving burnout in your cabinet move exactly the way a piano does — and why the room adjusts to the wrongness long before anyone names it. Twenty years ago, I moved my family away from everything they knew. Not across town. Across area codes — away from the school where I was principal, away from grandparents, away from the only bedrooms my three kids had ever slept in, away from every friendship they'd built since kindergarten. I told my wife it was the right move for our family. I still believe that. But telling a nine-year-old “this is the right move for our family” lands about as well as telling your cabinet a reorg is the right move for the institution. Correct. Unpersuasive. Deeply unwelcome. So we did what desperate, loving parents do. Ice cream. A puppy negotiation I'm still not proud of. And one purchase that turned out to matter more than either: a baby grand piano for the new house. That piano is still in my living room. Twenty years, three kids, and a tuner later — a woman who showed up twice a year for over a decade and never once used the word “burnout” — here's what she taught me about running a cabinet, without ever meaning to. A piano doesn't fail all at once. It drifts. One string at a time, one season at a time, so slowly that everyone living inside the house adjusts to the wrongness without ever naming it. Your leadership team is doing the exact same thing right now. And the people closest to it — the ones playing it every single day — are the last people on earth who'll hear it. THE DIAGNOSIS · NOTHING BROKE. IT DRIFTED. Let's talk about drift like adults who've sat through enough strategic planning retreats to know the difference between a crisis and a slow leak. When's the last time a VP in your cabinet pushed back — and meant it? Nobody's cabinet collapses on a Tuesday. What actually happens is smaller and slower: the VP who used to push back in meetings stops pushing back. The initiative that launched with real energy in August is, by February, running on habit and a group chat nobody reads anymore. The meeting that used to run ninety minutes now runs sixty — not because anyone got more efficient, but because half the room quietly decided the extra thirty minutes of honesty wasn't worth it. None of that shows up on a dashboard. It shows up the way a piano goes flat — not as an event, but as an accumulation. By the time someone finally names it (usually a board member, not gently), you're not looking at one broken string. You're looking at an instrument nobody's tuned in two years, and a room full of good people who adjusted to the wrongness because it arrived one cent at a time. (This is the part where I'm supposed to tell you to “communicate more.” You already knew that. The real problem isn't communication. It's that nobody in your cabinet has a name for what's actually going wrong — so everyone quietly assumes it's just them.) Structure is never neutral. Every system is a self-portrait of whoever built it — and most of yours was painted before you ever took the seat. ❞ Which means the villain was never the people in the room. Individual brilliance, individual empathy, individual self-awareness — all present, all functioning. Multiply eight individually excellent people by a system nobody's maintaining, and the output doesn't hold. That's not a people problem. That's structural neglect wearing a people costume. What looks like burnout in your cabinet is usually the rational response of a capable person inside a broken system. ❞ (This is the exact gap Burnout Force was built to name — not another framework asking your cabinet to try harder individually, but a diagnostic for the structural neglect sitting underneath what looks like burnout. Seven forces, seven distinct mechanisms, each requiring its own fix — the same way a tuner never fixes “the piano,” she fixes one string at a time. More on all seven in a moment.) THE PIANO TUNING METHOD — OR WHY SEVEN FORCES, NOT ONE A piano has seven notes before the octave repeats. Do, Re, Mi, Fa, Sol, La, Ti. Seven distinct tones, each capable of going wrong in its own particular way, each requiring its own fix. A tuner doesn't fix “the piano” — she fixes seven specific things, one string tension at a time. Here's the part most people miss: the seventh string never sounds right until the first one's fixed. Burnout Force works the same way. Not one villain. Seven — each with a distinct mechanism, each recognizable once you know what you're listening for. 1 · Fragmentation — Unisons, Out of Sync Most piano notes aren't a single string — they're two or three strings tuned to the exact same pitch, meant to ring as one voice. Drift even slightly apart, and the note doesn't go silent. It goes blurry. Chorused. Technically playing, technically wrong. That's Fragmentation: a cabinet where everyone's still showing up, still contributing, and the collective sound is somehow muddier than any one of them alone. 2 · Exhaustion — String Tension Under Constant Load Piano wire doesn't need to be struck to lose its tension. Sustained load alone, with no release, causes metal fatigue — the string goes flat just from sitting there under pressure. There's an old performance formula worth borrowing here: performance equals potential, minus interference. Not potential plus effort. Your best people are going flat the same way — not from one hard day, but from load with no release, for long enough that flat becomes their normal. 3 · Isolation — Notes That Won't Resonate Together Piano strings produce overtones — secondary frequencies that aren't perfectly clean multiples of the main pitch. Tuners call this inharmonicity: individually well-tuned notes can still clash rather than support each other in a chord. A cabinet can be full of individually excellent leaders who still don't resonate together, because nobody ever tuned them to each other. (Coal miners didn't bring a canary into the mine for company — they brought it as an instrument. When the person who used to drive every meeting suddenly goes quiet in the back row, that's not an attitude problem. That's a reading coming off the instrument.) 4 · Scarcity — Compensation That Crowds the Room When a piano is stretched to compensate for inharmonicity, one note's resonance can crowd out another's — more presence for one string at the expense of the one beside it. Scarcity is the belief that someone else's win is quietly your loss. It's rarely true. It's a tuning problem mistaken for a competition. 5 · Comparison — The Sound of Two Things Measured Against Each Other When two strings are close but not exactly matched, you hear an actual physical pulsing — tuners call it a “beat.” It's the audible result of two things being judged against each other instead of each being allowed to be itself. Comparison in a cabinet works the same way: audible, measurable, and it doesn't resolve on its own. 6 · Noise — Losing the Reference Point Every piano is tuned from one reference octave first — usually the one built around middle C — and everything else is set relative to it. If that reference is never revisited, the whole instrument can be internally consistent with itself and still be wrong, because the one thing everything else depends on was never checked. That's Noise: a cabinet that's stopped returning to its actual reference point and started tuning to whatever's loudest that week. 7 · Drift — The One That Doesn't Announce Itself And then there's the one nobody has to cause. Piano tuners genuinely use this word: drift — the slow, seasonal, nobody-touched-anything loss of pitch that happens just from humidity and temperature changing in the room. No event. No single decision. Just time, and an environment nobody adjusted for. This is the force behind the other six — and the one every leader I know insists could never happen to them, right up until the year it does. WHY FOUR, LIVE — THE AMPLIFICATION ENGINE Here's the part most burnout content skips: not all seven forces are equally random. Four of them are the causal engine — they manufacture the other three. Fragmentation produces Exhaustion (coordinating around broken structure is its own kind of tired). Exhaustion produces Isolation (depleted people stop reaching for each other; reaching itself becomes the thing they can no longer afford). Isolation produces Scarcity (a cabinet that's stopped resonating together starts believing there isn't enough credit, attention, or budget to go around). And Scarcity feeds straight back into Fragmentation — louder, the second time through. Comparison, Noise, and Drift sit downstream of all four. Fix the engine, and the other three get dramatically easier for your own people to spot and name themselves. You cannot fix the seventh string by tightening it harder. You fix the first one, and the seventh gets easier to hear. ❞ I didn't learn any of this from a leadership book. I learned it from the same tuner — never used the word “burnout,” never needed to. She just knew the instrument needed her back, regularly, not once and done. ❝ Your cabinet needs the same thing. Not a single retreat. Not one framework, delivered once, expected to hold. A tuner. A rhythm. Someone who comes back. ❞ THE APPLICATION · MONDAY MORNING Here's what to do Monday morning (assuming your cabinet isn't already visibly out of tune — in which case, start today): Step 1 — Name your loudest string. (15 minutes) Of the seven forces, which one is making the most noise in your cabinet right now? Don't overthink it. Your gut answer is usually the correct diagnosis your data hasn't caught up to yet. Step 2 — Ask your cabinet the “beat” question. (20 minutes, next meeting) Ask directly: “Where do two of us sound like we're being measured against each other instead of just doing our own job well?” That's Comparison, made audible. You'll hear the beat the moment someone answers honestly. Step 3 — Schedule the return visit. (5 minutes) A piano tuned once and never revisited drifts right back. Put a recurring cabinet health conversation on the calendar — quarterly, minimum. The tuner's value was never the single visit. It was the relationship. “We don't have time for this.” You're already spending time managing the symptoms of an out-of-tune cabinet — the redundant meetings, the parking-lot conversations, the initiative that quietly died in month four. That time is already being spent. You're just spending it on maintenance instead of tuning. “My team will think this is soft.” Nobody thinks a piano tuner is soft. She shows up with a very specific diagnosis for a very specific string, and the room sounds different when she leaves. Precision isn't soft. Vague inspiration is soft. This isn't that. THE MATURITY SHIFT Immature leaders think: “We need a retreat to fix morale.” Mature leaders think: “We need a rhythm to maintain the instrument.” Immature leaders wait for the piano to sound obviously wrong before calling anyone. Mature leaders schedule the tuner before the drift is audible to the room. The uncomfortable truth: your cabinet didn't break. It drifted — one string, one season, one quiet accommodation at a time — and nobody wrote it down because nothing dramatic ever happened on any single day. The optimistic reframe: drift is the one force that responds completely to maintenance. You don't need a new piano. You need someone who comes back. Your worth was never conditional on the note holding perfectly. It just needs someone willing to notice when it doesn't — and come back. ❞ Your turn: Which of the seven strings is out of tune in your cabinet right now? Name it in the comments — the word is enough. Tag the person on your team who'd hear it the second you said it out loud. BURNOUT FORCE Burnout Force is the name for what's actually happening — seven specific, researched forces, each with its own mechanism, each solvable once it's named correctly. The keynote fights the first four, live, together, with your cabinet in the room — the causal engine, the ones everything else grows out of. The book carries all seven, in full, with the research behind each one, so your team can finish the tune-up without me there. This isn't another framework to add to the pile you already haven't implemented. It's a diagnostic — built from work across 987 leadership teams in 43 states — for naming precisely which of the seven forces is loudest in your institution right now, and what actually reverses it. 📊 3x performance improvement · 29% higher engagement · 27% better organizational outcomes · zero increase in burnout — because these teams stopped treating exhaustion as a personal failing and started treating it as a structural, solvable problem. If you already know which string is out of tune in your cabinet, the conversation about whether Burnout Force is the right next step for your institution is a short one. Book 30 minutes and let's have it. higherperformancegroup.com/burnout-force FOUND VALUE IN THIS? Help another leader hear their own drift: → Repost with the force that's loudest in your cabinet right now. → Tag a leader who'd recognize this the moment they read it. → Comment with the last time something on your team went quietly out of tune — and nobody said anything for months.  The more leaders who learn to hear the drift before the crisis, the fewer institutions have to relearn this the hard way. Follow DR. JOE HILL and Higher Performance Group for weekly Team Intelligence insights.
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