5 (Faulty) Assumptions That Will Further Shrink Your Enrollment in the Year Ahead

March 7, 2023

Is the world changing?


Nope. It has changed. 


Leading a campus (or a district of campuses) in the new world of work has been more than complex. 


What enhances the struggle is when your assumptions about the future are false. 


Recently, Ms. Becky (my wife) and I embarked on a winter hike that we planned would take a few hours in our home state of Minnesota. The snow and ice on the trail were a bit more than planned, causing us to cancel our dinner plans with friends that evening. 

puzzle pieces

The hike was beautiful, but our delay was discouraging. 


Isn’t it better to know it will be difficult and find it a bit easier than to think things will be easy and find them super challenging?


What’s true in life is especially true in leadership.


Over the past 18 months, I have encountered more than a few delusional leaders working from conventional strategies for bolstering campus enrollment that, in all likelihood, won’t pan out.


Your performance will grow if you get your assumptions dialed in and work your plan with focus. 


Here are the five (faulty) assumptions that will further shrink your enrollment in the year ahead.


1. What worked before is going to work again.


A crisis is both a revealer and an accelerator.


The crisis of the last few years has accomplished two things across every campus. It’s revealed what’s working and what isn’t. And it’s sped up the consequences of both.


While a few systems have seen rapid growth during the crisis, most are recovering. Just last week, I found myself in the middle of an executive leadership conversation hinging on the question, “should we host a town hall meeting to say that we are up in enrollment (over last year) when in reality, we are still 18% down since 2020.”


On the one hand, it is
right to celebrate gains to foster hope, but on the other hand, campus leaders must be clear in “right-sizing” their budgets without confusing their people. 


How can you be up in enrollment and cutting programs right?


Because crisis both reveals and accelerates, perhaps you’re seeing today what your campus would have looked like in 2030 without a healthy course correction. 


As sobering as that might be, perhaps it’s a gift.


If the old
 approach allowed for Lucky Growth (we built it, and they will come), the accelerated decline could be a gift to help you see that a new Leading Growth approach is needed.


If the old approach isn’t replicating growth, trying harder in that space won’t bring different results, no matter how hard you grind.


And if the old model wasn’t working before, it will probably not work again, no matter how sincere you are, how loudly you command your people, or how desperate you feel.


The time has finally come for campus leaders to double down on the mission and experiment with the methods.


2. The building will be the center of education.


At the heart of every declining system is the over-reliance on buildings as the focal point of all learning engagement.


What if the future of transforming lives has left the building? 


By this, I don’t mean that campus sites across the country should abandon gathering. The future of education is (and will always be) in
community. 


Decentralized, distributed, and small group is the future of learning in the new world. 


Somehow, education fell into the assumption that for quality engagement to occur, it was fixed within the construct of a campus (with a mascot), four walls to a classroom, and two covers to a book. 


And that is observed by cramming humans into auditoriums, rows, and other settings where dialogue isn’t really encouraged.


You may still be shocked and frustrated by the surprisingly low return-to-campus attendance trends this semester.


What if the people you’re looking for haven’t left? What if they’ve just left your building? 

 

Plug your nose because this truth stinks, for sure. Many of your learners are gone for good. 


No questions. No arguing. 


Those missing may not be leaving the educational pipeline altogether. They may not even be leaving your system.


They’re just not returning to YOUR building, and perhaps they won’t even after the pandemic is a distant memory.


I’m not saying this is good (I don’t like it either). I am saying it’s real. 


Leaders who cooperate with reality do far better than those who fall victim (and complain about it).


Here’s what’s critical. Your mission isn’t dead. 

  • Your commitment to academic excellence and student success.
  • Your dedication to equity and inclusion.
  • Your partnership with families and the community.
  • Your emphasis on professional development and ongoing learning.
  • Your commitment to accountability and transparency.


But your methods might be on life support.


What if the BUILDING as a method is getting in the way of thriving in delivering your mission?



At the end of 2023, what would it feel like to be ahead again?


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Without a new focus and approach, it's easy to continue to:

➜ Sacrifice self and family on the altar of work.

➜ Overcommit and underdeliver.

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➜ Juggle more priorities than what we can complete.


Worst of all, other people — other tasks, jobs, and projects — will continue to hijack your life.


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3. You don’t need to take virtual learning that seriously.


The rallying cry – “EVERYONE GET BACK TO THE BUILDING” that so many college presidents and district superintendents have shouted over the last year still surprises me.


Add to that the consistent and critical dismissal of virtual learning as a quality option for mission delivery. I’m not talking about your website, live stream, and social media upgrades. I’m referring to the notion that your online presence is likely underfunded and relegated to the middle of someone’s job description.


Too many campus sites have a Web1 presence as Web2 peaks, and Web3 emerges, yet still wonder why they can’t grow enrollment.


For a primer on Web3 and the “metaverse” in education, I highly recommend reading
What Does Web3 in Education mean for the future of teaching and learning. 


Most campuses spend 90-98% of their learning budget on in-person education in an era where fewer people attend in-person school than ever.


Please hear me out. Each campus MUST do in-person learning exceptionally well.


But you are losing significant traction when your system spends a tiny fraction of its time and resources serving and prospecting your current and future learners in the virtual economy. 


The good news is that sometimes online engagement will lead to in-person. 


Sometimes it doesn’t.


The point is that everyone you want to reach IS online. If you can’t engage people in cyberspace, you miss them and all the opportunity that comes with it.


4. The future will be linear.


There was a season in leadership from the 1980s through the mid-2010s where leadership was more straightforward because progress (in both technology and society) was linear.


There were a few recessions and setbacks along the way, but it was usually only a matter of time until things started moving forward again in a predictable fashion. While that wasn’t true in every organization, it was culturally true across education.


The mid-2010s ushered in the first waves of instability (division, deeper partisanship, rage, and the severe questioning of institutions), all serving as a massive wave disrupting the patterns we knew and had come to trust. 


The pandemic and ensuing global crisis accelerated the destabilization even further.


Leaders of geopolitical thought predict that the future will be unpredictable (how’s that for a prediction?). 


The future will be less linear, unstable, and complex than anything ANYONE has led before. 


This is unchartered territory. Thinking the future will be linear and predictable only sets you and your team up for more heartbreak and anger.


You know the stoic line, “the secret to happiness is low expectations?”


Having lower expectations for predictability and embracing the probability of instability will better prepare you to lead your team and system successfully. 


Agile leaders and teams thrive in periods of rapid change, and if you’re ready for it, you can be one of those leaders and one of those systems.


For more on this, you may want to take another look at my post,
4 Big Signs to Guarantee your Performance Won’t Turn Around.


5.
Running hard like your hair is on fire is the only way to fix this.


Many leaders have been running so hard for so long, grinding under the false hope that the next quarter/new semester/new year will bring new hope.


Has it?


This leaves you with the question, “how long can I run at this pace?”


For most leaders, the meter expired months or years ago. And that leaves you exhausted, looking ahead at an impossible future.


Exhaustion is the gateway to terrible decision-making, moral failure, burnout, ineffectiveness, and chronic underperformance. 


Why? 


Running at an unsustainable pace will leave you too tired to think about innovation and without the energy to dare, risk, or execute.


This has to be the season for you to focus—to find a sustainable pace.


It’s no shock that one of the first casualties of working too hard is a loss of creativity. As 
Adam Grant has pointed out, great ideas take time and margin to develop and often involve experimentation and failure.


And most importantly, creativity is linked to slowing down and creating space for the creative process to ferment and grow (Adam’s 
2016 TED talk would be good therapy right now, by the way).


If finding a sustainable pace has been elusive for you (as it has for most leaders), I’d love to help you find one.
Book a Free Virtual Coffee Here for a pep talk and a free consultation for effectively managing your meeting triage.


Running hard indefinitely isn’t the way to fix a problem—it’s actually the way to break you.




Identify and Break Through Your Growth Barriers.


Enroll Your Team in the Lead Team Institute 


  • What used to work isn’t working anymore. What do I do next? 
  • Why don’t we see results, even when we’re putting in the effort? 
  • What’s the right decision for the future when everything is so uncertain? 


The Institute
is for you if you are a Campus President, District Administrator, or a Public Sector Executive Director looking to Optimize Higher Team Performance. 


Escape the struggle today by joining a vibrant cohort where leaders share strategies and ideas to help each other Reclaim Momentum. 

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Ready to change the trajectory of your campus?


Set up a
Virtual Coffee HERE to learn more. 



More Blog Articles

By HPG Info August 12, 2026
Why your best TEAMS keep producing average results — and the seven-force system underneath it. There's a villain running in every cabinet meeting that never makes the agenda. It doesn't show up in the accreditation report. It doesn't show up in the strategic plan everyone signed with real applause eleven months ago. It shows up in the parking lot — the conversation two people have on the walk to their cars that never once got said in the room. Nearly a thousand leadership teams told us the same thing, almost word for word: Individually, this cabinet is exceptional. Collectively, it runs at about 60% of what it can actually do. (That's roughly the batting average of the last consultant's deck you paid for.) So here's the only question worth asking: what if the people were never the problem? That gap has a name. Seven names, actually. Once you see them, you won't sit through a cabinet meeting the same way again. This also hits differently depending on the week you're reading it. The Diagnosis Let's talk about this like adults who've sat through enough retreats to know the difference between a "sweet tote-bag vibe" and actual change. You've done the retreat. Facilitator, breakout groups, a conversation on the drive home more honest than anything said in the room. (Somewhere, the whiteboard from that retreat is still standing in a hallway, unerased, like a crime scene nobody's cleared.) You came back with a plan. Three weeks later, it's a shared-drive folder nobody opens. Your best people have gone quiet in meetings — not out of ideas, out of reasons to keep offering them. Two departments have solved the same problem twice, six months apart, neither knowing the other already did the work. None of that is a hiring problem or a motivation problem. It's what the system does. That folder nobody opens — what does it actually cost you? Not dollars. The thing that's harder to name: how many of your best people still believe change is possible here. (This is exactly what the Burnout Force Check measures — three minutes, no guessing, a clear read on which of seven forces is costing your cabinet the most. More on that shortly.) Burnout at the team level isn't seven unrelated problems. It's one system wearing seven faces. Four build on each other in a straight line. The other three are what happens once those four feel normal. Timing · The Force Behind the Forces One more interruption before the framework. Read this in August — cabinet freshly reassembled, year still shaped like a plan — and it lands as a preview. Read it in February, board meeting Thursday, budget doing whatever it’s doing this year, and it lands as a mirror. Same seven forces. Same diagnosis. Completely different weight depending on where your cabinet is standing when it lands. That's not a flaw in the framework — that's the first thing worth knowing about it. Every team carries a pain point. Not every team is standing in the moment to act on it. A cabinet three weeks into a transition has different capacity than one eighteen months into a stable run. So, plainly: if you read the seven forces below and think “yes, but not now” — that’s not the wrong answer. Timing isn’t a character flaw. But “not now” only works with a date attached. Without a date, “not now” is just Drift wearing a calendar as a disguise. Name the pain. Then name the moment. If the moment's wrong, don't force it — build the plan for when it's right. Everything below still applies. Just on your timeline, not somebody else's September. The Tuning System · Why Your Best Cabinet Sounds Off-Key Twenty years ago, I bought a piano. Baby grand, delivered to a house my family hadn't asked to move into — three kids uprooted from the only childhood they'd known, distinctly unimpressed with dad's new title. We'd already done ice cream. Then a puppy. Then this. The piano was the exclamation point on my bribery campaign. The day it arrived, that piano was about as close to perfect as an instrument gets. Every string hand-tensioned. Every hammer weighted exactly right. Seven notes to the octave, every one of them true. My kids played it, but nobody had to really even touch it to lessen the quality. The daily temperature shifts and the humidity drifts were enough — the wood and wire quietly answering back, a fraction of a millimeter at a time. Nobody ever touched a tuning peg. The room just kept pulling on it. All three of my kids grew up on that piano. The ones playing it every day were the last people on earth to hear the drift. They adjusted without ever noticing they were adjusting. It took our tuner — a woman who came once a year, someone who hadn't been living inside that slow drift — to sit down and wince at the first chord. Your Team: Nobody lowered their bar. Nobody had to. Seven forces pull on your leadership team constantly. Four build the whole engine, one causing the next: FRAGMENTATION — The Silo Tax. MIT's Human Dynamics Lab found fragmented teams burn up to 60% of their energy on coordination drag alone. (Your cabinet isn't lazy. It's just really, really good at scheduling meetings about the meeting.) EXHAUSTION — The Parking Brake. When coordination breaks, someone absorbs the gap. Not a personality trait. A structural bill, and it always comes due inside somebody's calendar. ISOLATION — The Solo Sport. Exhausted people stop reaching — not because they've stopped caring, because vulnerability became a cost the system taught them they can't afford. SCARCITY — The Empty Table. Isolated people compete for a recognition supply the system made feel finite. Not a mindset problem. An accurate read of a rationed room. COMPARISON, NOISE, and DRIFT are what a culture does once those four feel normal — peaking, respectively, during budget season, right before a board vote, and in year three or four of a tenure, not at the crisis but in the calm after it. Call her Daniela — a college provost with a team that, on paper, should've been unstoppable. Eight people, decades of combined experience, individually excellent by every metric that shows up on a résumé. Their meetings ran long, produced consensus, changed almost nothing. Her VP of Student Success had started emailing ideas instead of raising them in the room — safer, she said, than watching them get nodded at and forgotten. Here's the part that matters for timing: Daniela ran the Burnout Check in February — mid-year, mid-fatigue, three weeks after a board member asked a hard question about retention nobody answered well. Not because February is special. Because that's when her cabinet was finally ready. She ran the Launch Check on the next initiative — three questions, out loud, before anything left the room: What problem are we actually solving? Who else needs to know this exists? What breaks if we don't coordinate here? Not a retreat. A five-minute habit, applied every time. Eight months later — back at the start of a new academic year — her cabinet wasn't just aligned, it was audible. Her VP started raising ideas in the room again, because the room had finally started keeping them. The Application · What To Run, Whenever "Now" Actually Is Here's what to run at your next meeting — not a retreat, not a new initiative. Three moves, one gut-check on timing first. Move 0 — Locate yourselves. (5 min) Where's your cabinet actually standing? New year? Mid-year plateau? Weeks from a board vote? Mid-transition? Say it out loud. The forces don't change. Your capacity to act on them right now does. Move 1 — Run the Launch Check. (10 min, next agenda item) What problem are we actually solving? Who else needs to know this exists? What breaks if we don't coordinate here? (Can't answer the third one? You just found your fragmentation. Congratulations — you're now self-aware, which is more than most teams manage before they don't.) Move 2 — Audit the brake. (15 min, this week) Ask everyone to name one task this week that exists only because something upstream is broken. Pick one. Abandon it, publicly. Move 3 — Name what counts. (Every meeting) Before you close, name one contribution from the last week — specifically. Not “great job.” More like: “That question you asked Tuesday saved us from a decision we’d have regretted.” Two objections, handled straight: “We don’t have time for this.” How many hours did your cabinet spend last week on work that only exists because something upstream never got fixed? Teams we've studied average 40% of a week there. What's forty percent of your week actually worth? “The timing’s genuinely bad.” Then don’t run all three this week. Run Move 0. Name the moment, out loud, and put a real date on the calendar for the rest. A named delay is a plan. An unnamed one is Drift. The Maturity Shift Immature cabinets think: “We need better communicators.” Mature cabinets think: “We need a coordination system nobody has to remember to use.” Immature cabinets think: “Wrong time — skip it.” Mature cabinets think: “Wrong time — name the date.” Immature cabinets treat the retreat as the fix. Mature cabinets treat it as the invitation — and the Monday after, whatever month it falls in, as the actual work. (Immature cabinets also still have that whiteboard in the hallway. Someone should really erase that.) Uncomfortable math: the average leadership team we've studied runs at 60% of its own potential — not because the people are average, but because seven forces are quietly pulling on an instrument nobody's been asked to keep tuned. One word. Which force is eating your cabinet right now? One more, honestly: is now the moment you act, or the moment you name when you will? Go Tune Your Own Cabinet — On Your Own Timeline Most cabinets never get past naming the problem. They diagnose it beautifully at a retreat, then go back Monday to the same untuned instrument. One more question, honest answer this time: if this stays exactly this shape for the next two years, what does that cost? Not the institution's numbers. You. The part of you that took this seat to build something, not just keep it running. What would it mean to know — not guess, know — which of these seven forces is costing your cabinet the most, and whether right now is the moment to act on it? The Burnout Force Check takes about three minutes and shows you exactly where your cabinet sits across all seven forces — same research behind this framework, built to tell you the diagnosis and the timing: https://burnoutforce.higherperformancegroup.com/ That baby grand is still standing in my living room. My kids are grown now — gone, building their own lives, with their own drift to manage. My grandkids are the ones on the bench these days. Same instrument. Same seven strings. I didn't understand it twenty years ago, but I never bought that piano for me. I bought it for whoever showed up next. That's the whole case for the Burnout Force Keynote , honestly. Every leader eventually leaves the seat. The only question is whether the next person inherits a system that's still drifting, or a signal that holds without you in the room: https://www.higherperformancegroup.com/burnout-force Across 987 leadership teams in 43 states, the cabinets that ran this framework saw real, measurable movement on all seven forces — because the system finally got named, tuned, and named again at the right moment. The diagnosis doesn't change with the season. Your capacity to act on it does. What's the first force worth naming out loud in your next meeting? Found Something in This? Message us. We read every one. info@higherperformancegroup.com Follow DR. JOE HILL and Higher Performance Group | THE BURNOUT FORCE
By HPG Info August 3, 2026
K-12 or higher ed — same grave, same fight, and where we actually stand on it. Every August, someone in a lanyard stands in front of a room full of exhausted adults — a superintendent at convocation, a provost at the fall address — and says some version of “this is the year everything changes.” Everyone claps. Nobody believes it. By October, both rooms are right back where they started, for the exact same structural reason, just wearing different institutional colors. You know the K-12 version of the grave: the PD-day initiative that had its own hashtag in August and hasn't been mentioned since the first snow day. You know the higher-ed version: the strategic plan the board approved 7-0, the one nobody on the provost's council could name a completed goal from by homecoming. Same grave. Different landscaping. Here's what should actually keep you pacing in your office more than enrollment or the sub shortage. Gallup's 2023 workforce data puts global disengagement at 62% . MIT's Human Dynamics Lab found fragmented teams burn up to 60% of their energy on coordination — meetings about meetings, not the work. Harvard economist Sendhil Mullainathan's research on scarcity found that operating under constant shortage costs the brain the functional equivalent of 13 IQ points . Thirteen. That's the gap between your sharpest VP and someone who forgot the agenda. One more, because it should make you genuinely angry: training-transfer research going back three decades puts the share of professional learning that ever makes it into practice at under 10% . Every PD day. Every retreat. Every conference you sent three people to in July. You're not underfunding development. You're funding an extremely expensive form of forgetting. None of this is a motivation problem. Your people aren't lazy or allergic to change. They're operating inside a system quietly taxing them on seven fronts before they've poured their first cup of coffee in the building. And if it doesn't get named this year, it isn't just this year that pays for it. It's whoever inherits your seat. It's the kid in the back row, the freshman three weeks into a dorm, the faculty member who stopped raising a hand two years ago and nobody noticed. The cost has names. So here's where we stand, plainly, because none of this works if you don't know it. WE ARE FOR HEALTHY TEAMS AND HIGHLY RELIABLE SYSTEMS. That's the HPG brand, in five words. WE ARE AGAINST THE SYSTEMS THAT ACCELERATE BURNOUT — the ones that train your best people to mistake exhaustion for commitment, reward the loudest voice over the best idea, and quietly bill the people who care most for continuing to care. Not the board. Not the budget. THE SYSTEM itself. We didn't build this to run another workshop. We built it to fight for both ends of that equation — the leader carrying it, and the kid, the freshman, the faculty member on the other side who never got a vote in how well the system was built. Pick a side. We already have. Here's what FOR actually looks like, not hypothetically — we've watched it happen close to a thousand times. The Tuesday cabinet meeting ends on time. The VP who started emailing ideas instead of saying them out loud starts saying them out loud again. The plan from August is still alive in October — audible, not filed. That's not a culture initiative. That's a highly reliable system, doing what it's supposed to do. It starts with knowing, precisely, which of seven forces is your leak. Not guessing. Not a hallway read. Next week, you find out which one is yours. I'm opening The Burnout Force Check — three minutes, seven forces, your own honest number. It isn't live yet. It opens next week, right here.  Message me personally, and I'll make sure you're first through the door — doesn't matter which lanyard you're wearing. Follow DR. JOE HILL and Higher Performance Group
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